Monthly Archives: November 2017

Extremely Active 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to a Close

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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends today.  Not only was it above average, as predicted, it was the basin’s fifth most active season on record.

According to NOAA, there were seventeen named storms this season. Of these, ten developed into hurricanes and six were major hurricanes with ratings of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. An average season produces twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. It is also interesting to note that this year’s ten hurricanes developed consecutively over the course of ten weeks, marking the largest number of hurricanes to form in a row in the satellite era.

This season’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the intensity and duration of storms, was also exceptionally high. On average, a season will post an ACE of 104 in the Atlantic. This year, according to researchers at Colorado State University, it was 226 – the seventh highest in the historical record.

Officially running from June 1 to November 30, the season got off to an early start this year. Tropical Storm Arlene was a rare pre-season storm that developed in April. Another interesting outlier was Hurricane Ophelia in October. It was the easternmost major hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic Basin and the strongest storm on record to hit the Republic of Ireland. The biggest names of the season, however, were Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

In August, Harvey made landfall in Texas as category-4 hurricane. It was the first major hurricane to hit the United States since Wilma in 2005. It was also the wettest storm on record, dumping more than 50 inches of rain in southeastern Texas. This extreme precipitation caused catastrophic flooding in the Houston area.

Hurricane Irma maintained category-5 strength winds for 37 hours before making landfall as a category-4 storm in the Florida Keys. Measuring about 425 miles in diameter, Irma was wider than the Florida peninsula and its effects were felt across the entire Sunshine state in early September.

Just two weeks later, Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico. It was the third category-four hurricane to hit the US, or one of its territories, in less than a month. In 166 years of record keeping, that never happened before.

Causing so much destruction, Harvey, Irma, and Maria will likely be retired from the World Meteorological Organization’s list of storm names.

This active hurricane season was largely the result of above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and ENSO neutral to cool La Niña conditions in the Pacific. With warm water to fuel storms coupled with reduced wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico, tropical development in the Atlantic basin was essentially unhindered.

In terms of economic impact, ENKI Operations, a private research firm, estimates the property damage, clean up costs, and lost business productivity from this year’s storms to be $206 billion. That would make 2017 the costliest hurricane season on record for the US. The official tally from NOAA will not be available until early 2018.

Data: NOAA

Energy Flow: A Wind Powered Public Art Installation in Pittsburgh

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On a recent visit to Pittsburgh, PA I had the opportunity to see “Energy Flow”, a wind-powered art installation on Rachel Carson Bridge. It was created in 2016 through a collaboration between environmental artist, Andrea Polli, and WindStax, a Pittsburgh-based wind turbine manufacturer.

Using sixteen small vertical axis wind turbines to power 27,000 LED lights, the piece produces a rainbow of colors up and down the bridge’s vertical supports. The light show visualizes the local wind speed and direction in real time as detected by an onsite weather station. The project also has battery storage to power the lights for up to twelve hours when the wind is not blowing. In essence, this artwork turned the bridge into a micro-grid – a single location where power is produced, stored and consumed.

As a site-specific art installation, it honors the environmental legacy of Rachel Carson (1907-1964). She was a native of the Pittsburgh area who went on to become a marine biologist and famous environmental writer. Her books, such as “Silent Spring”, are widely credited with inspiring the environmental movement of the 1960s that eventually brought about federal laws like the Clean Air Act.

The project also highlights Pittsburgh’s new focus on technological innovation and sustainability. Once known as the “Smokey City”, because of all the pollution that billowed from its plethora of mills and factories, Pittsburgh has refocused its economy and remade its image. Situated at the confluence of three rivers – the Allegheny, Monongahela, and Ohio – it is home to an astounding 446 bridges and is now often referred to as the “City of Bridges”. The Rachel Carson Bridge was originally, and rather simply, called the Ninth Street Bridge after it opened in 1926. It was renamed on Earth Day 2006.

“Energy Flow” was only expected to be up for a few months to celebrate Pittsburgh’s Bicentennial. But due to popular demand, its run has been extended through the end of 2018.

“Energy Flow” Wind/Light Installation on Rachel Carson Bridge, Pittsburgh, PA. Credit: Covestro LLC

Weather and the NYC Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade

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The Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade is a long-standing holiday tradition in New York City.  For 91 years, it has marched rain or shine. Nevertheless, the weather has been a factor in the event several times over the years.

Famous for its giant character balloons, high winds are the main weather challenge for the parade. According to city guidelines, the multi-story balloons cannot fly if there are sustained winds in excess of 23 mph or gusts higher than 34 mph. These regulations were put in place following a 1997 incident where gusty winds sent the “Cat in the Hat” balloon careening into a light post, which caused debris to fall on spectators.

The only time the balloons were grounded for the entire parade was in 1971 when torrential rain swept across the city. In 1989, a snowstorm brought the Big Apple a white Thanksgiving with 4.7 inches of snow measured in Central Park. The parade marched on that year but without the “Snoopy” and “Bugs Bunny” balloons as they were damaged by high winds earlier that morning.

This year, the wind is not expected to be a problem. Temperatures, however, are forecast to be a bit chilly – mostly in the 30s during the parade hours. So, bundle up if you are planning to be outside along the route.

Marching from West 77th Street to West 34th Street in Manhattan, the 91st Annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade is scheduled to begin at 9 AM on Thursday morning.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Paddington Bear Balloon floats down 6th Ave in Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Credit: Macy’s

Outcomes of the UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn

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The UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany, known as COP 23, concluded on Saturday. Its goal was to draft the rules and processes needed to translate the spirit of the historic Paris Agreement into action.

Years in the making, the 2015 Paris Agreement set the target of holding global warming to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, nearly 200 countries submitted individual voluntary emissions reduction plans known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). But when added up, the current collection of NDCs, which vary widely in ambition, will miss the 2°C goal.  In fact, they would allow for a 3.2°C (5.76°F) rise in the global temperature. This is why the agreement requires countries to reassess their plans every five years once it goes into effect in 2020.

One of the main goals of the Bonn meeting was to create a standardized rulebook for the monitoring and reporting of these independent undertakings. While some progress was made, the negotiators agreed to wait until the end of 2018 to finalize these vital rules. However, they did agree to begin discussing the NDC shortfall and the need to increase ambitions before 2020 at the next COP. This process was labeled the “Talanoa Dialogue”, which is a tradition of inclusive and transparent conversation used to resolve differences without blame in Fiji – the official host of this year’s conference.

The issue of financing climate adaptation – the touchy subject having wealthy nations pay to help poor nations adapt to climate change – was also pushed down the road. However, the delegates did establish an expert group to discuss the issue of “loss and damages”.

Although ratified in record time, the Paris Agreement is a fragile accord. All commitments are voluntary and vulnerable to the political will of individual governments – both now and in the future. Moreover, there are no penalties for those who do not live up to their promises.

That said, on the second day of this two-week conference, war-torn Syria announced that it would sign the Paris pact. This move now leaves the US as the only country not part of the global agreement. The Trump administration announced its intention to withdraw the US from the accord in June.

Outside of the formal COP meetings, the positive spirit of the Paris Agreement pushed forward. Nineteen countries and several sub-national actors (states and cities) created the “Powering Past Coal Alliance”. Its aim is to phase out the use of coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, by 2030. According to the International Energy Agency, coal still powers 40% of the world’s electricity.

The Bonn meeting was the 23rd session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It was lead by Fiji but held in Germany because of logistical concerns on the small island nation.The next conference (COP 24) will take place in December 2018 in Katowice, Poland.

Credit: UN

October 2017: Earth’s Fourth Warmest on Record

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Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with October 2017 tying October 2003 as the fourth warmest October ever recorded on this planet. Only October 2014, 2015, and 2016 were warmer.

According to the State of the Climate Report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 58.41°F. That is 1.31°F above the 20th-century average. October was also the 394th consecutive month with a global temperature above its long-term norm. That means the last time any month posted a below average reading was December 1984.

It is also interesting to note that the ten warmest Octobers on record have all occurred in the 21st century.

While heat dominated most of the planet last month, some places were particularly warm, including much of Europe, northern Russia, and the northeastern United States. For the contiguous US as a whole, the month ranked among the warmest third of the historical record.

These soaring temperatures are largely attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. In fact, a weak La Niña – the cool counterpart of El Niño – developed in the tropical Pacific during October.

Year to date, the first ten months of 2017 were the third warmest such period of any year on record. With only two months left, 2017 is expected to end up among the top three warmest years ever recorded on this planet. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

October 2017 was the planet’s 4th warmest October on record. Credit: NOAA 

Record Low Temperatures and First Freeze of the Season for NYC

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After a record warm October, a blast of frigid arctic air plunged into New York City this weekend.

The temperature in Central Park dropped to 25°F late Friday night and hit 24°F early Saturday morning, setting new record lows for both dates. According to the NWS, the previous records of 27°F for November 10 and 28°F for November 11 were set in 1914 and 1933, respectively.

The high temperature on Saturday only reached 38°F, which is 5°F colder than the normal low for this time of year. Overall, it felt more like January than November for the BIg Apple.

This cold plunge also marked the city’s first freeze of the season. While more extreme than normal, the timing of these frosty conditions is about average as the city typically sees its first freeze in mid-November. The earliest first freeze on record occurred on October 19 in both 1940 and 1974. The latest was on December 22, 1998.

Produced by a deep dip in the jet stream, these chilly conditions are not expected to last long. Temperatures are forecast to rebound to more seasonable levels in the next few days.

An Arctic blast sent temperatures plunging in NYC. Credit: The Weather Gamut

La Niña is Back and Likely to Stick Around Through the Winter

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La Niña, the cooler counterpart of El Niño, has returned for the second year in a row.

It is a natural event associated with the larger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern and is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. More specifically, a La Niña event is declared when sea surface temperatures in that region are at least 0.5°C below average and accompanied by a consistent atmospheric response. This includes more clouds and rain over the western Pacific and less over the central part of that basin. Stronger than average upper-level wind is also a key atmospheric indicator.

The relatively cool water associated with La Niña creates an area of high pressure over the Pacific and pushes the jet stream northward. This, in turn, affects weather patterns around the globe.

In the US, a La Niña event typically brings the southern states conditions that are warmer and drier than normal. The northern tier, on the other hand, usually experiences below average temperatures with the northwest and Great Lakes regions receiving above average precipitation.

That said, every La Niña event is different. There are also other atmospheric factors, such as blocking patterns, which can influence the weather.

According to NOAA, there is a 65%-75% chance of weak La Niña conditions continuing through the winter months.

Typical Winter La Niña jet stream pattern over North America. Credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.

Syria Signs Paris Climate Agreement, Leaving US as Lone Holdout

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The United States is now the only country on the planet not part of the Paris Climate Agreement.

On Tuesday, Syria announced that it would sign the historic accord to limit global warming. The surprising declaration came at COP23, the UN Climate Change Conference that is currently taking place in Bonn, Germany. The move comes on the heels of Nicaragua signing the pact in October.

Years in the making, the Paris Agreement set the target of holding global warming to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, nearly 200 countries submitted individual voluntary emissions reduction plans known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

When the deal was struck in 2015, Syria was in the midst of a destructive civil war and Nicaragua refused to sign because if felt the agreement did not go far enough to rein in carbon pollution. The US on the other hand, under the Obama Administration, played a critical role in making the deal a reality. But President Trump, who has called climate change a “hoax”, announced plans to withdraw the US from the global pact earlier this year.

Following the rules of the agreement, however, the US cannot officially pull out of the deal until 2020. In the meantime, the administration says it will only re-enter the global accord if it can renegotiate more favorable terms. The rest of the world, however, seems ready to move forward on this critical issue without the US.

The US is the only country not part of the Paris Climate Agreement. Credit: Quartz

Massive Federal Science Report Says Humans Cause Climate Change

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The Fourth US National Climate Assessment (NCA4) was released on Friday. It clearly states that climate change is real, it is happening now, and human activities are the main cause.

The first volume of the assessment – the Climate Science Special Report – says the average global temperature has increased 1.8°F (1°C) during the past 115 years (1901-2016). “This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization,” according to the report. It also says that “it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” Going even further, the report concludes, “there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.”

With a focus on the US, the report says the average annual temperature in the contiguous forty-eight states has increased by 1.2°F (0.7°C) since 1986, relative to the previous century. It is projected to increase 2.5°F (1.4°C) by 2050.

In addition to warming, other aspects of climate change are highlighted in the massive report. One of these is sea level rise. Since 1900, the average global sea level has gone up 8 inches. Of that total, a 3-inch rise has occurred since 1993. This rate of rising, according to the report, “is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years.”

Moving forward, all projections show sea level continuing to rise. An increase of several inches is likely in the next fifteen years and 1 to 4 feet is estimated by 2100. A rise of as much as 8 feet by the end of the century, however, “cannot be ruled out”, the report warns. This is especially true if the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica prove to be more sensitive to rising temperatures than expected. In cities along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard, where daily tidal flooding is already a problem, sea level rise is forecast to be even higher than the global average.

The report also contains details on how extreme weather is changing across the US. For example, heavy rainfall events are ”increasing in intensity and duration” nationwide with the biggest increases happening in the northeast. In the west, the incidence of large forest fires has been rising since 1980 and is expected to increase even further in the coming years. Heat waves, unsurprisingly, have also become more frequent while cold waves have become less frequent.

Looking beyond the next few decades, the NCA says the magnitude of climate change depends on the amount of greenhouse gases that are added to the atmosphere. The level of carbon dioxide in the air today has already passed 400 parts per million, a number not seen in 3 million years. If emissions are not reined in, the average global temperature could increase by as much as 9°F (5°C) by the end of this century. According to the report, “the further and the faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of unanticipated changes and impacts.”

Mandated by Congress under the Global Change Research Act of 1990, this exhaustive climate report was produced by hundreds of experts from government agencies as well as academia and was peer-reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences. Published every four years, it is considered this country’s most authoritative statement on climate change.

Its findings, however, are in stark contrast to the words and actions of the Trump Administration. The President has called climate change a “hoax” and in June announced that he is withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Agreement – an international accord that aims to reduce greenhouse gases and limit global warming to 2°C (3.6°F). The US and Syria are now the only two countries not part of the historic agreement.

Global annual average temperature (left) and surface temperature change for the period 1986–2016 relative to 1901–1960. Credit: NCA4

October 2017: Warmest on Record in NYC

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October 2017 was New York City’s warmest October on record. Its average temperature of 64.1°F was a staggering 7.2°F above the long-term norm. The previous record of 63.6°F was set in 1947 and tied in 2007.

Overall, twenty-six out thirty-one days were warmer than normal. Four of those produced readings in the 80s. Two record warm minimum temperatures were also set during the month. On October 8 and 9, the Big Apple only cooled down to 72°F and 71°F respectively. The average low for those dates is 52°F.

In terms of precipitation, the city was mostly dry. The weather station in Central Park reported 4.18 inches of rain, which is 0.22 inches below average. Of this total, 3.03 inches fell in a single day at the end of the month. This type of heavy rain event, according to NOAA, is expected to become more common in the northeast as the average global temperature increases and precipitation patterns change.

October 2017 was the warmest October on record in NYC. Credit: The Weather Gamut