Tag Archives: climate change

2016 was Second Warmest Year on Record for US

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2016 was the second-warmest year ever recorded in the continental US.

The average annual temperature of the lower 48 states, according to NOAA’s National Centers of Environmental Information, was 54.9°F. That is a whopping 2.9°F above the 20th century average and only 0.4°F shy of the record that was set in 2012. This also marks the 20th consecutive year that the annual average temperature for the contiguous US was above its long-term norm.

From coast to coast, every state posted one of their top-seven warmest years. Georgia was record warm and Alaska, the nation’s northern most state, had its third consecutive warmest year on record. “The breadth of the 2016 warmth is unparalleled in the nation’s climate history,” NOAA said. “No other year had as many states breaking or close to breaking their warmest annual average temperature.”

Credit: NOAA

2016 was also notable for its unusual number of weather and climate disasters that each totaled more than $1 billion in damages. In all, fifteen such events collectively caused $46 billion in direct costs and claimed the live of 138 people across the US. These incidents included drought, wildfire, four inland floods, eight severe storms, and a tropical cyclone. Only 2011, with sixteen events, produced more billion-dollar disasters.

Credit: NOAA

The exceptional warmth of 2016 was driven by a combination of strong El Niño conditions at the beginning of the year and the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. These soaring temperatures, however, were not limited to US borders. Later this month, NOAA is expected to announce that 2016 was the planet’s warmest year on record for the third year in a row.

Weather records for the contiguous United States date back to 1895.

November 2016: Fifth Warmest November on Record for Planet Earth and Second Warmest Autumn

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Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with November 2016 marking not only the fifth warmest November on record but also closing out the second warmest meteorological autumn ever recorded for the entire planet.

According to a report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for November – over both land and sea surfaces – was 56.51°F. That is 1.31°F above the 20th-century average and only 0.41°F shy of the record that was set last year.

The three-month period of September, October, and November – known as the meteorological autumn in the northern hemisphere – was also one for the record books. With the season posting an average temperature that was 1.39°F above the 20th century average, it was the Earth’s second warmest September to November period on record.

While heat dominated most of the planet these past three months, some places were particularly warm. Here in the contiguous US, the autumn of 2016 was our warmest on record. Nearly every state experienced above average temperatures and eight were record warm – Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Texas, and Wisconsin.

These soaring temperatures are attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. Whereas El Niño gave global temperatures a boost earlier in the year, it dissipated in June. In fact, its cooler counterpart, La Niña, prevailed across the tropical Pacific Ocean this November.

Year to date, the first eleven months of 2016 were the warmest of any year on record. It is now almost certain that 2016 will surpass 2015 as the Earth’s warmest year ever recorded. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Climate Change Indicator: The Keeling Curve

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Increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the main causes of global warming. The steady rise of this potent greenhouse gas is clearly visible on the Keeling Curve, a leading indicator of human-caused climate change.

Charles David Keeling, a researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, set up a CO2 monitoring site high atop Mauna Loa on the Big Island of Hawaii in 1958. This remote spot in the middle of the Pacific Ocean is well removed from the localized influences of both carbon sources (factories) and sinks (forests) that could skew the data. According to NOAA, it is the world’s oldest continuous carbon dioxide monitoring station.

When the data recorded at the site is shown graphically, it resembles a “saw-toothed” curve. This is because CO2 levels go up and down throughout the year with the life cycles of plants. Since most of the world’s landmass and vegetation are in the northern hemisphere, CO2 levels start to go down in spring when plants draw in the gas during the process of photosynthesis. Then, after reaching a minimum in the autumn, CO2 levels begin to go back up as plants die off and decay.

The curve’s long-term trend, however, has been definitively upward. Human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, have been releasing more CO2 into the atmosphere than natural carbon sinks (plants and oceans) can take out.

When first established in 1958, the CO2 level at Mauna Loa was 315ppm (parts per million). This autumn, it was more than 400ppm. To put this rapidly increasing number into perspective, consider that ice-core research shows that pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide held steady around 280ppm from about 1000-1750 AD.

The Keeling Curve. Credit: Scripps and NOAA

The Keeling Curve. Credit: Scripps and NOAA

Outcomes of the UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh

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The UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, known as COP 22, concluded on Saturday. Building on the momentum of the 2015 Paris Agreement, it began the process of putting the details of that historic accord into action.

Years in the making, the Paris Agreement set the target of holding global warming to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, nearly 200 countries submitted individual voluntary emissions reduction plans known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Based on the current collection of NDCs, which vary widely in ambition, the agreement will only cut greenhouse gas emissions by about half of what is necessary to reach the 2°C (3.6°F) goal. It does, however, legally obligate countries to publically report how much emissions they have actually eliminated and to reassess their plans every five years.

One of the main goals of the Marrakesh meeting was to create a standardized rulebook to monitor and report on these independent undertakings. But after two weeks of negotiations and to the dismay of those hoping for quicker action, the diplomats agreed on 2018 as the deadline for setting up this vital framework. The finance of climate adaptation – the touchy subject of who will pay for what in terms of helping poor nations adapt to climate change – was also punted two years down the road. However, they did issue the Marrakech Action Proclamation re-affirming their commitment to the Paris Agreement and their promises to combat climate change.

Although ratified in record time, the Paris Agreement is a fragile accord. All commitments are voluntary and vulnerable to the political will of individual governments – both now and in the future. Moreover, there are no penalties for those who do not live up to their promises. This is why the election of Mr. Trump as the next US President sent shockwaves through the meeting in Morocco.

The President-elect has famously called climate change a “hoax” and said he would withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement. While only time will tell if Mr. Trump will follow through on his rhetoric of climate change denial, the rest of the world seems willing to move forward with plans to tackle this critical issue.

Outside of the formal COP meetings, the positive spirit of the Paris Agreement pushed forward. Four countries – Canada, Germany, Mexico and the US – announced their climate action plans through 2050. With one of the more aggressive proposals, Germany aims to essentially stop using fossil fuels and reduce its emissions between 80% and 95% by mid-century. Furthermore, a group of forty-eight developing nations, members of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, declared their intention to switch to 100% renewable energy between 2030 and 2050.

The Marrakech meeting was the 22nd session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The next conference (COP 23) will take place in November 2017 in Bonn, Germany.

Credit: UN

Credit: UN

October 2016: Third Warmest October on Record for Planet Earth

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Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with October 2016 tying 2003 as the third warmest October ever recorded on this planet.

According to a report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 58.4°F. That is 1.31°F above the 20th-century average and only 0.47°F shy of the record that was set last year.

While heat dominated most of the planet this October, some places were particularly warm, including parts of Canada and Greenland. Here in the contiguous US, it was our third warmest October on record and warmest since 1963.

These soaring global temperatures are attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. Whereas El Niño gave temperatures a boost earlier in the year, it dissipated in June. In fact, its cooler counterpart, La Niña,  prevailed in October.

Year to date, the first ten months of 2016 were the warmest of any year on record. This significantly increases the likelihood that 2016 will surpass 2015 as the Earth’s warmest year ever recorded. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

October 2016 was Earth's third warmest October on record. Credit: NOAA

October 2016 was Earth’s third warmest October on record. Credit: NOAA

The UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh is Underway

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COP 22, the UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, Morocco, is underway. The goal of this massive meeting is to turn the ideas outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement into action.

Years in the making, the Paris Agreement set the target of holding global warming to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, nearly 200 countries submitted individual voluntary emissions reduction plans known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

Moving into the next phase of this historic agreement, the diplomats attending the Marrakesh meeting will hash out the framework needed to monitor and report on these independent undertakings. The ideal system would involve an independent panel with consistent standards that monitors countries to see if they are following through on their greenhouse gas reduction pledges. This type of reporting, it is believed, would encourage accountability as it applies the power of public scrutiny. Some countries, however, are expected to argue for a self-monitoring system. China and India, two of the world’s largest polluters, are likely to push for this less public path.

Another big topic at the Marrakesh meeting will be money. During the Paris talks last year, the wealthy nations of the world said they would create a fund and spend $100 billion a year to help poor nations adapt to climate change. Negotiators will have to work out the details of where and how this money be spent.

Although ratified in record time, the Paris Agreement is still a fragile accord. All commitments are voluntary and vulnerable to the political will of each individual government. Moreover, there are no penalties for those who do not live up to their promises.

That said, expectations going into Marrakesh are high as governments around the world have shown a willingness to act on climate change outside the parameters of the Paris Agreement. Last month, global leaders agreed to reduce the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a potent greenhouse gas commonly used as a coolant in refrigerators and air-conditioners. They also agreed to make airplanes more fuel-efficient and reduce the overall carbon footprint of air travel.

The Marrakesh conference runs through November 18.

Credit: UN

Credit: UN

September 2016: Second Warmest September on Record for Planet Earth

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Temperatures around the globe soared last month. In fact, September 2016 was the second warmest September ever recorded for the entire planet.

According to a report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 60.6°F. That is 1.60°F above the 20th-century average and only 0.07°F shy the record that was set last year.

This second place finish effectively ends a 16-month stretch of record warm global monthly temperatures – the longest such streak on NOAA’s books.

While heat dominated most of the planet this September, some places were particularly warm. Several countries in Europe posted readings that were among their top five warmest for the month. These included Germany, the UK, France, Holland, and Austria. Here in the contiguous US, it was our ninth warmest September on record.

These soaring temperatures are attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. Whereas El Niño gave global temperatures a boost earlier in the year, it dissipated in June. ENSO-neutral conditions, according to NOAA, prevailed in September.

Year to date, the first nine months of 2016 were the warmest of any year on record. This significantly increases the likelihood that 2016 will surpass 2015 as the Earth’s warmest year ever recorded. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

September 2016 was the second warmest September on record for the entire planet. Credit: NOAA

September 2016 was the second warmest September on record for the entire planet. Credit: NOAA

Paris Climate Change Agreement Enters into Force

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The Paris Climate Agreement is signed, sealed, and delivered. Approved domestically by the requisite number of signatories with unusual speed, it will enter into force in 30 days.

The historic deal negotiated at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris last December required ratification by 55 countries, representing 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions before it could go into effect. This double threshold was passed this week when the EU, Canada, and a number of smaller states officially ratified the agreement. To date, according to the UN, 72 countries representing more than 56% of emissions have signed on to the deal including the US, China, and India – the world’s three largest carbon polluters.

The aim of this international agreement is to limit global warming to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, it employs a mix of voluntary and legally binding actions. While every country submitted their own emissions reduction plan known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), there was no requirement quantifying the amount of greenhouse gases they had to cut or how it had to be done. Additionally, there are no penalties for those who do not live up to their promises. Instead, the accord depends heavily on global peer pressure and the hope that no country wants to be seen as a slacker in the eyes of the world.

Based on the current collection of national plans, which vary widely in ambition, this agreement will only cut greenhouse gas emissions by about half of what is necessary to reach the 2°C (3.6°F) goal. The accord, however, does legally obligate countries to publically report how much emissions they have actually eliminated and to reassess their plans every five years.

While flawed, the Paris Accord is the world’s first truly global climate agreement. It marks the culmination of a very long, and often tumultuous, international political process that began at the Rio Earth Summit 24 years ago. That said, the hard part still lies ahead.

Individual nations need to stay the course and implement the commitments in their NDCs. The framework needed to monitor and report on these independent undertakings will be negotiated at the next UN Climate Change Conference (COP22) in Marrakesh, Morocco this November. The Paris Agreement will come into force on November 4th.

Paris Climate Change Agreement has met the double threshold required to enter into force. Credit: UN

The Paris Climate Change Agreement met the double threshold required to enter into force on October 5, 2016. Credit: UN

Survey Says… Art Can Help Broaden the Public Conversation on Climate Change

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The Tri-State Weather Conference is this weekend and I will be presenting the results of a survey I organized this summer on a poster titled “Art Can Help Broaden the Public Conversation on Climate Change.”

Building on my talk, “The Art and Science of Climate Change”, I was curious to know if climate-art was influencing people’s opinions. Therefore, moving from the qualitative to the quantitative, I conducted an online poll of 300 people from across the US using Survey Monkey. Participants were asked comparison questions about the influence of traditional graphs vs. artistic interpretations of climate change. The graphs were sourced from the IPCC’s fifth assessment report and the artwork came from both photojournalists and conceptual artists.

When compared to a graph, the different styles of art received different reactions. On average, however, a significant number of the participants (34%) related more to the issues of climate change via art than through traditional charts and graphs. Overall, 64% of participants said art had changed the way they thought about a subject in the past.

These results show art to be a powerful tool of communication that helps to broaden the public conversation on climate change. They also highlight the fact that a variety of visual outreach methods are needed to reach the entire population on this critical issue that affects us all in one way or another.

survey_pie_a

The survey shows art can help broaden the public conversation on climate change. Credit: The Weather Gamut.

The Creative Climate Awards – An Art Exhibition on Climate Change

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The Human Impacts Institute is bringing art and science together in an effort to expand public understanding of climate change. In a group exhibition called The Creative Climate Awards, artworks of various mediums explore the challenges of this pressing issue.

This annual event, according to organizers, “uses the arts and creativity to share knowledge, broaden the climate conversation, educate, and incite action.” The show features artists from around the world, including: Ellen Alt, Ed Ambrose, Carolina Arevalo, Vikram Arora, Julie Bahn, Danielle Baudrand, Anna Borie, Laura Brodie, Kenneth Burris, Yon Cho, Alejandra Corral de la Serna, Michael Fischerkeller, Melissa Fleming, Rachel Frank, Kathryn Frund, Shelley Haven, Martin Kalanda, Kaiser Kamal, Julian Lorber, Heather McMordie, Dominique Paul, Peim, Fariba Rahnavard, Clark Rendall, Alexandros Simopoulos, Britta Stephen, Shira Toren, Lars Vilhelmsen, Joyce Ellen Weinstein, and Ana Gabriela Ynestrillas.

The exhibit runs from September 27th to October 27th at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office (TECO), 1 East 42nd Street, NYC. The opening reception is scheduled for Tuesday, September 27th from 6PM to 8PM. This event is free and open to the public.

For a full list of events during the course of the exhibition, please click here.

"Energy: 300 Million Years" from the Under Glass series by Melissa Fleming. Credit: Melissa Fleming

“Energy: 300 Million Years” from the Under Glass series by Melissa Fleming. Credit: Melissa Fleming