January 2018: Earth’s Fifth Warmest on Record

Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with January 2018 marking the fifth warmest January ever recorded on this planet. The last four Januarys now rank among the five warmest on record.

According to a report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 54.88°F. That is 1.28°F above the 20th-century average. January was also the 397th consecutive month with a global temperature above its long-term norm. That means the last time any month posted a below average reading was December 1984.

While heat dominated most of the planet this January, some places were particularly warm, including the western half of the United States and most of Europe. For the contiguous US as a whole, January ranked among warmest third of the nation’s 124-year period of record.

Coming on the heels of 2017 – Earth’s third warmest year on record and warmest year without an El Niño – these soaring temperatures are largely attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. In fact, La Niña conditions – the cool counterpart of El Niño – were present in the Pacific during January.

Global temperature records date back to 1880.

January 2018 was the planet’s 5th warmest January on record. Credit: NOAA

The Outlook for the Winter Olympics in a Warming World

Millions of American are tuning in to watch the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea and one of the ads they are seeing features a strong message on sustainability from Toyota. Showing ice sculptures of athletes melting, the company is promoting their hybrid vehicles and says it wants “to help keep our winters, winter”. It is a poignant and timely message as our global temperature warms and the viability of many previous Winter Olympic host sites is declining.

Since the first winter games were held in 1924, the month of February – the traditional time of year for this global event – has increased an average of 1.82°F worldwide. If this current rate of warming continues, according to Climate Matters, only 6 of the 19 past host sites will be reliable future venues by the end of the century. Under a business as usual scenario, previous host cities, on average, are expected to see a temperature increase of 7.9°F by the 2080s. Significant cuts to greenhouse gas emissions would reduce that warming to 4.86°F

Warming winters also affect athletes’ ability to train. In the US, NOAA says winter temperatures have increased almost twice the rate of summer temperatures. If this trend continues, some areas are likely to see the ski season cut in half by 2050. This truncated season correspondingly means an economic hit for the winter sports and recreation industry. These businesses, according to Protect Our Winters, contribute $72 billion to the national economy annually and support more than 600,000 jobs.

The 2014 Olympics in Sochi, Russia were the warmest winter games on record.

Credit: Climate Central

Art and Climate Change: “In Human Time”

The inaugural exhibition of The Climate Museum in New York City has brought art and science together in an effort to expand public understanding of climate change. 

“In Human Time” explores the intersections of polar ice, timescales, and human perception. Installed at the Sheila C. Johnson Design Center at the Parsons School of Design (the museum is looking for a permanent home), the exhibit is divided into two parts. The first of which (December 20 – January 15) displayed Zaria Forman’s large-scale image, Whale Bay, Antarctica No. 4. Depicting calved glacial ice grounded in shallow water, it could easily be mistaken for a photograph captured in an instant. However, a time-lapse video alongside the piece reveals it to be a pastel drawing created by hand over many weeks.

Ice Cores. Credit: Peggy Weil

The second part of the exhibition (January 19 – February 11) focuses on the Arctic and highlight’s Peggy Weil’s 88 Cores. This slow-paced video is essentially one continuous pan that takes the viewer nearly two miles down into the Greenland ice sheet and more than 100,000 years back in time. Photographs of ice cores as well as artifacts and media that offer a science context to the Arctic ice accompany the artwork.

“The Climate Museum’s mission,” according to its website, “ is to employ the sciences, art, and design to inspire dialogue and innovation that address the challenges of climate change, moving solutions to the center of our shared public life and catalyzing broad community engagement.”

The exhibition is on view through February 11, 2018, at :
The Arnold and Sheila Aronson Galleries
Sheila C. Johnson Design Center
Parsons School of Design
66 Fifth Avenue, New York City

For more information, visit http://climatemuseum.org/home

“Whale Bay, Antarctica No. 4″, Pastel on Paper, 84″x144”. Credit: Zaria Forman.

2017: Third Warmest Year on Record for Planet and the Warmest Year Without an El Niño

It is official, 2017 was the third warmest year ever recorded on this planet. Only 2015 and 2016 were warmer.

According to a report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the year – over both land and sea surfaces – was 58.51°F. That is a staggering 1.51°F above the 20th-century average.

2017 also marked the 41st consecutive year with a global temperature above its long-term norm. That means the last time any year posted a below average reading was 1976.

While heat dominated the planet last year, some places were particularly warm. Here in the contiguous US, it was our third warmest year on record.

The exceptional warmth of 2017 is largely attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. While El Niño conditions helped influence record heat in the past, 2017 was the warmest year on record without an El Niño being present in the Pacific. In fact, ENSO neutral conditions prevailed for most of the year and La Niña – the cool counterpart of El Niño – developed in the autumn.

Looking at the bigger picture, nine of the ten warmest years on record have occurred since the beginning of the 21st century. Three of those years – 2014, 2015, and 2016 – were back-to-back record breakers. As greenhouse gases – the main drivers of global warming – continue to spew into the atmosphere, temperatures will continue to rise and records will likely continue to fall.

Global temperature records date back to 1880.

2017 was the third warmest year on record for our planet. Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

2017: Third Warmest Year on Record in US

2017 was the third-warmest year ever recorded in the continental United States. Only 2012 and 2016 were warmer.

The average annual temperature of the lower 48 states, according to a report by NOAA’s National Centers of Environmental Information, was 54.6°F. That is 2.6°F above the 20th-century average. 2017 also marked the 21st consecutive year that the annual average temperature for the contiguous US was above its long-term norm. That means the last time the US had a normal to below normal annual temperature was 1996.

From coast to coast, for the third year in a row, every state posted an above-average annual temperature. Five states – Arizona, Georgia, New Mexico, North Carolina, and South Carolina – had their warmest year on record. This was despite the unusually cold conditions that dominated the eastern part of the country in December.

The year was also notable for its unusual number of weather and climate disasters that each totaled more than $1 billion in damages. In all, sixteen such events collectively caused $306 billion in direct costs – a new US record. Sadly, they also claimed the lives of at least 362 people across the country. These incidents included drought, wildfire, floods, severe storms, and three major landfalling hurricanes.

The exceptional warmth of 2017 was independent of El Niño. In fact, ENSO neutral conditions prevailed for most of the year and La Niña – the cool counterpart of El Niño – developed in the autumn.

Weather records for the contiguous United States date back to 1895.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Climate Communication: Using Art to Get Beyond the Numbers

Climate change is a complex scientific subject with a plethora of data-rich reports that detail its causation and diverse impacts. However, as important as all that information is, not everyone responds well to facts and figures or charts and graphs. That is why art, which taps into human emotion and tells visual stories, can help create new pathways to understanding this vital issue that affects us all.

On Tuesday, January 9, I will be giving a presentation titled “Climate Communication: Using Art to Get Beyond the Numbers” at the 98th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society in Austin, Texas. The theme of this year’s conference is “Transforming Communication in the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise“.

Building on my previous interdisciplinary art-science projects, this talk will review the results of a recent national survey that shows how art can help to broaden the public conversation on climate change. It will also highlight specific artworks that speak to the assorted impacts of this critical issue and its possible solutions.

Credit: AMS

Planet Posts Fifth Warmest November and Fourth Warmest Autumn on Record

Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month. November 2017 tied November 2016 as the fifth warmest November on record and closed out the planet’s fourth warmest September to November period, which is known as meteorological autumn in the northern hemisphere.

According to the State of the Climate report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for November – over both land and sea surfaces – was 56.55°F, which is 1.35°F above the 20th-century average. November also marked the 395th consecutive month with a global temperature above its long-term norm. That means the last time any month posted a below average reading was December 1984.

The three-month period of September, October, and November was also unusually warm. NOAA reports that Earth’s average temperature for the season was 1.35°F above the 20th century average of 57.1°F. That makes it the fourth warmest such period on record.

While heat dominated most of the planet this season, some places were particularly warm, including parts of southern North America and southern Asia. For the contiguous US as a whole, it was our tenth warmest autumn on record.

These soaring temperatures are largely attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. In fact, a weak La Niña – the cool counterpart of El Niño – developed in the tropical Pacific during October and prevailed in November.

Year to date, the first eleven months of 2017 were the third warmest such period of any year on record. With only one month left, 2017 is expected to end up among the top three warmest years ever recorded on this planet and become the warmest year without an El Niño. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

Credit: NOAA/NCEI

Report Finds Hurricane Harvey’s Record Rainfall Linked to Climate Change

Hurricane Harvey – one of the big names of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season – unleashed catastrophic flooding in southeast Texas at the end of August. Now, after months of reviewing the data, scientists say the storm was exacerbated by climate change.

According to a peer-reviewed report by World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international coalition of scientists, human-caused climate change made Harvey’s devastating rainfall three times more likely to occur and fifteen percent more intense. Using historical rainfall data and high-resolution climate models to compare conditions in a pre-warming world to those at the time of the storm, the WWA team was able to separate the climate signal from natural variability. They found that the deluge caused by Harvey would have been a 1-in-2400-year event in the absence of global warming, but is now a 1-in-800-year event and becoming more likely.

Heavy rainfall events, in general, are becoming more frequent in many different places, because as the atmosphere warms it can hold more moisture. In fact, it can hold four percent more moisture for every 1°F of warming. This means there is more water vapor available in the air that can fall as precipitation.

After rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Harvey made landfall as a category-4 storm in the Texas Coastal Bend region on August 25. It then stalled over the area for several days, unleashing massive amounts of rainfall. Cedar Bayou, outside of Houston, reported a staggering 51.88 inches of rain, setting a new record for the continental US. The storm claimed the lives of 80 people and more than 120,000 residents across the area had to be rescued from their homes. The economic impacts of the deluge are still being tallied, but it is expected to be one of the most expensive in US history.

The WWA study only analyzed the impact of climate change on Harvey’s rainfall, not its role in the storm’s formation or strength.  Those connections remain an active area of research.

Climate change made Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall worse. Credit: Climate Central. (World Weather Attribution is led by Climate Central, a non-profit research group.)

Outcomes of the UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn

The UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany, known as COP 23, concluded on Saturday. Its goal was to draft the rules and processes needed to translate the spirit of the historic Paris Agreement into action.

Years in the making, the 2015 Paris Agreement set the target of holding global warming to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, nearly 200 countries submitted individual voluntary emissions reduction plans known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). But when added up, the current collection of NDCs, which vary widely in ambition, will miss the 2°C goal.  In fact, they would allow for a 3.2°C (5.76°F) rise in the global temperature. This is why the agreement requires countries to reassess their plans every five years once it goes into effect in 2020.

One of the main goals of the Bonn meeting was to create a standardized rulebook for the monitoring and reporting of these independent undertakings. While some progress was made, the negotiators agreed to wait until the end of 2018 to finalize these vital rules. However, they did agree to begin discussing the NDC shortfall and the need to increase ambitions before 2020 at the next COP. This process was labeled the “Talanoa Dialogue”, which is a tradition of inclusive and transparent conversation used to resolve differences without blame in Fiji – the official host of this year’s conference.

The issue of financing climate adaptation – the touchy subject having wealthy nations pay to help poor nations adapt to climate change – was also pushed down the road. However, the delegates did establish an expert group to discuss the issue of “loss and damages”.

Although ratified in record time, the Paris Agreement is a fragile accord. All commitments are voluntary and vulnerable to the political will of individual governments – both now and in the future. Moreover, there are no penalties for those who do not live up to their promises.

That said, on the second day of this two-week conference, war-torn Syria announced that it would sign the Paris pact. This move now leaves the US as the only country not part of the global agreement. The Trump administration announced its intention to withdraw the US from the accord in June.

Outside of the formal COP meetings, the positive spirit of the Paris Agreement pushed forward. Nineteen countries and several sub-national actors (states and cities) created the “Powering Past Coal Alliance”. Its aim is to phase out the use of coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, by 2030. According to the International Energy Agency, coal still powers 40% of the world’s electricity.

The Bonn meeting was the 23rd session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It was lead by Fiji but held in Germany because of logistical concerns on the small island nation.The next conference (COP 24) will take place in December 2018 in Katowice, Poland.

Credit: UN

October 2017: Earth’s Fourth Warmest on Record

Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with October 2017 tying October 2003 as the fourth warmest October ever recorded on this planet. Only October 2014, 2015, and 2016 were warmer.

According to the State of the Climate Report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 58.41°F. That is 1.31°F above the 20th-century average. October was also the 394th consecutive month with a global temperature above its long-term norm. That means the last time any month posted a below average reading was December 1984.

It is also interesting to note that the ten warmest Octobers on record have all occurred in the 21st century.

While heat dominated most of the planet last month, some places were particularly warm, including much of Europe, northern Russia, and the northeastern United States. For the contiguous US as a whole, the month ranked among the warmest third of the historical record.

These soaring temperatures are largely attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. In fact, a weak La Niña – the cool counterpart of El Niño – developed in the tropical Pacific during October.

Year to date, the first ten months of 2017 were the third warmest such period of any year on record. With only two months left, 2017 is expected to end up among the top three warmest years ever recorded on this planet. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

October 2017 was the planet’s 4th warmest October on record. Credit: NOAA