Arctic Air Brings Brutally Cold Temperatures to NYC

A massive arctic outbreak has sent most of the U.S. into a deep freeze.  From the Mid-West to the Eastern Seaboard and down to the Gulf Coast, many cities are dealing with the coldest temperatures they have seen this season.

Here in New York City, the mercury fell to 8°F in Central Park this morning. Factoring in the wind chill, it felt like -8°F. Our normal low temperature for this time of year is 27°F.

As cold as it was today, it was not the coldest day the Big Apple has ever experienced. That dubious honor, according to the NWS, belongs to February 9, 1934, when the low temperature was a brutal -15°F.

Produced by a deep dip in the jet stream, our current frigid conditions are expected to stick around through the weekend. Bundle up!

Drought Update: Late Autumn 2014

Over the past few weeks, rounds of intense rainstorms fueled by a phenomenon known as a Pineapple Express have soaked the west coast of the United States and helped put a modest dent in California’s nearly 3-year drought.

According to the latest report from the US Drought Monitor, 32% of California is currently facing conditions of “exceptional drought”, the worst possible category. That is an improvement from last week’s 55%.   Nonetheless, 100% of California – a state generally considered to be one the most productive agricultural regions in the world – is still in some form of drought.

Water levels in reservoirs throughout this country’s most populated state also remain low. Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, the two largest reservoirs in California, are both currently at 33% of total capacity and only 55% of the historical average for the date.

With winter considered the “rainy season” in California, it is possible for additional storms to continue slowly reducing the region’s long-term drought conditions. Scientists working with NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites say that California needs 11 trillion gallons of water, enough to fill more than 16 million olympic-size swimming pools, to completely end the drought.

20141216_CA_trd

Credit: US Drought Monitor

A Quiet 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to an End

The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends today.  For a second year in a row, it was relatively quiet.

According to NOAA, there were eight named storms this season. Of these, six developed into hurricanes and only two – Edouard and Gonzalo – were rated category-3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. On average, the Atlantic produces twelve named storms and three major hurricanes (category-3 or higher) every year.

Throughout the season, which runs from June 1st to November 30th, only one named storm made landfall in the U.S.  Hurricane Arthur, a category-2 storm, brought powerful winds and storm surge flooding to North Carolina’s Outer Banks for Independence Day in early July. It was the earliest hurricane to strike N.C. in the state’s history.

Other countries, such as Bermuda, were hard hit this hurricane season. In October, two storms – Tropical Storm Fay and Hurricane Gonzalo – slammed the island nation in less than a week.

Experts say broad areas of high pressure and dry air were the main factors that hindered more extensive tropical development in the Atlantic this season.

Hurricanes

Source: NOAA

The Weather of the Future: Forecast for September 2050

In advance of the U.N. Climate Summit later this month, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has launched a video series of hypothetical weather forecasts for different regions of the globe that are all set 36 years in the future. They are meant to show that today’s climate projections could really be tomorrow’s weather. The U.S. version of this project was released today and it focuses on sea level rise, heat waves, drought, and the warming arctic.

Produced by the Weather Channel, the scenarios presented are based on projections published in the latest IPCC report and the U.S. National Climate Assessment. Watch the video below to see what an American weather forecast could look like on the not so distant date of September 23, 2050.

Video Credit: WMO, TWC, and YouTube

Deadly Tornado Strikes Upstate New York

A tornado tore through the town of Smithfield in upstate New York on Tuesday. It caused widespread damage and claimed the lives of four people.

Carving out a 2.5-mile path of destruction, this deadly twister toppled trees and leveled homes. With winds ranging from 111-mph to 135-mph, it was rated EF-2 by the National Weather Service. While tornadoes in New York are not very common, they are not unheard of.  In fact, two twisters touched down in NYC in 2012.

Tuesday’s tornado, according to NOAA, was the second deadliest in NY history.  It was only outranked by a storm that struck Orange County in November 1989 that caused nine fatalities.

Storm damage in Smithfield, NY  Credit: Syracuse.com

Storm damage in Smithfield, NY.  Credit: Syracuse.com

U.S. National Climate Assessment: 2014

The White House released the third US National Climate Assessment (NCA) report yesterday. It clearly states that climate change is not a distant problem of the future; it is happening now and impacting every region of this country.

Issued every four years to assess how climate is changing in the US, this latest report says: “Summers are longer and hotter, and extended periods of unusual heat last longer than any living American has ever experienced. Winters are generally shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier downpours. People are seeing changes in the length and severity of seasonal allergies, the plant varieties that thrive in their gardens, and the kinds of birds they see in any particular month in their neighborhoods.” In terms of agricultural production, “Corn producers in Iowa, oyster growers in Washington state and maple syrup producers in Vermont are all observing climate-related changes that are outside of recent experience.”

“U.S average temperature,” according to the report, “has increased by 1.3°F to 1.9°F since 1895, and most of this increase has occurred since 1970. The most recent decade was the nation’s and the world’s hottest on record, and 2012 was the hottest year on record in the continental United States.” Over the next few decades, temperatures are projected to rise another 2°F to 4°F.  By the end of the century, our average temperature could soar by 10°F if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unchecked.

While similar in theme to the recently released IPCC report from the UN, this assessment focuses solely on the United States. Emphasizing the fact that rising temperatures will affect different parts of our vast country in different ways, the NCA breaks the nation down into specific regions. It details the current and future impacts of climate change in each one. Here are some regional highlights:

Northeast: Increased frequency and duration of heat waves; Increased flooding due to sea level rise and extreme rain events

Southeast: Increased frequency and intensity of extreme heat events; Decreased availability of fresh water; Increased threat from sea level rise

Mid-west: Increased frequency of extreme heat events; Increased heavy downpours and flooding; Decreased air quality

Southwest: Increased heat, drought, and wildfires; Increased insect outbreaks

Northwest: Decreased summer water supplies due to earlier snow melt; Increased threat from sea level rise; Increased insect outbreaks and wildfires

Alaska: Warming twice as fast as the rest of the nation; Loss of sea ice, melting glaciers, thawing permafrost; Increased wildfires

Hawai’i: Increased saltwater intrusions from sea level rise; Decreased availability of fresh water

As a nation with over 95,000 miles of coastline, the report also addresses the issues of ocean warming and acidification.

Written by over 300 NOAA scientists and endorsed by dozens of other experts from both the public and private sector (including two oil companies), the NCA concludes that, “Climate Change presents a major challenge for society.” It goes on to say, “There is mounting evidence that harm to the nation will increase substantially in the future unless global emissions of heat trapping greenhouse gases are greatly reduced.” While this comprehensive report does not offer policy, it does emphasize the urgent need for both adaptation and mitigation at all levels of government.

The colors on the map show temperature changes over the past 22 years (1991-2012) compared to the 1901-1960 average for the contiguous U.S., and to the 1951-1980 average for Alaska and Hawai'i.  Image Credit: NCA

Change in annual average temperature, 1991-2012. Credit: NCA

 

A Day of Drenching Rain in NYC

April is famous for its showers, but yesterday’s precipitation was extreme. Torrential downpours brought New York City more than a month’s worth of rain in a single day.

According to the NWS, 4.97 inches of rain was measured in Central Park. Not only is that a new daily record for the date, it was the 10th rainiest day ever recorded in NYC. On average, we normally get 4.50 inches of rain for the entire month of April.

Up until yesterday, the city’s rainfall total was running below average for the month. So, while the rain was beneficial for the area, the rate at which it came down and its extended duration caused a number of localized flooding problems.

Scientists say the frequency of extreme rain events like this one will increase as global temperatures rise and our climate changes.

Drought Update: Spring 2014

Drought has been plaguing the western and southwestern regions of the United States for months. Without any significant spring precipitation, the situation has gone from bad to worse.

According to the latest report from the US Drought Monitor, 100% of California – the entire state – is experiencing some form of drought. This is the first time this has happened in the Monitor’s 15-year history. Most of the state, 77%, is currently in extreme drought. That is up from 69% from just a week ago.  Experts say this situation is unlikely to improve anytime soon now that California’s so-called rainy season has ended.

These parched conditions have serious implications for this nation’s third largest state. With a population of nearly 40 million people, drinking water supplies are at risk and the threat of wildfires are on the rise. As a major agricultural producer, the drought there will also have impacts across the country in terms of rising food prices.

Another hard hit area is Texas, especially in the panhandle. Currently, 86% of the Lone Star state is in drought and 13% is suffering under conditions of exceptional drought – the worst possible category.

The Drought Monitor is a weekly publication produced by a partnership of government agencies, including the National Drought Mitigation Center, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Image Credit: US Drought Monitor

Image Credit: US Drought Monitor

Cold Winters and Climate Change

Cold and snowy weather – the type that has dominated this winter across much of the United States – can lead some people to question the validity of global warming.  According to scientists, however, these frosty conditions are not entirely unexpected in our changing climate.

Cold temperatures are a natural part of winter.  Our astronomical seasons – winter, spring, summer, and fall – are generated by the tilt of the Earth’s axis and the movement of the planet around the sun.  During the winter months, our hemisphere is tilted away from the sun and receives the least amount of solar energy all year.  So, even as our average global temperature goes up, winter will continue to be cold relative to the other seasons.

The tilt of the Earth during different seasons. Image Credit: NASA

The seasons are caused by the tilt of the Earth as it rotates on its axis and revolves around the sun.  Image Credit: NASA.

Although global warming will not change the tilt of the Earth’s axis, it is affecting the moisture content of our atmosphere.  Increasing levels of greenhouse gases are warming the air and allowing it to hold more water vapor.  As a result, when storms develop they produce more intense precipitation.  In winter, that includes snow, sleet, and freezing rain when given the appropriate temperature range.

This year, we have experienced a number of arctic outbreaks from the now famous polar vortex.  Each one provided a deep pool of cold air that helped produce significant snowfall throughout the eastern two-thirds of this country. While the occasional cold snap is part of the season’s natural variability, they have been lasting longer recently. Some scientists suggest this is the result of arctic amplification – a tendency for the arctic to warm more rapidly than the mid-latitudes. As the temperature difference between the two regions decreases, the jet stream slows down and takes a wavier shape. The larger the waves, the slower they move, and the weather associated with them – warm or cold – stays in place longer.

It is also important to remember that climate change is a complex global phenomenon that involves much more than what is happening in our own backyards.  While it has been a brutally cold and snowy winter for many of us in the Northeast and Midwest, the western states are in the midst of a serious drought and Alaska has been experiencing record high temperatures.  Beyond our borders, much of the rest of the world has been unusually warm.  For example, the recent Olympic Winter Games in Sochi, Russia were the warmest in history. In the southern hemisphere, Australia sweltered through a record heat wave in early January. Experts say it is not unusual to see regional variability with climate change, but overall the Earth’s atmosphere is unequivocally warming.

This short video by the Yale Climate Forum highlights the issue of cold weather and climate change in the context of the 2013-14 winter season….

Video Credit: Yale Climate Forum and YouTube

Weather and Health: Extreme Cold

Persistent frigid temperatures have been gripping a large part of the United States recently.  In these conditions it is important to remember that, like extreme heat, extreme cold can be very dangerous.

Extreme cold causes the body to lose heat faster than it can be generated.  Prolonged exposure, according to the CDC, can cause serious health problems, including hypothermia and frostbite.

Hypothermia is a condition of unusually low body temperature – generally below 95°F.  It impairs brain functions, limiting a victim’s ability to think and move.  Symptoms include severe shivering, drowsiness, confusion, slurred speech, and fumbling.  If left untreated, it can be fatal.

Frostbite is a localized injury to the skin and underlying tissues caused by freezing.  It can cause permanent damage and extreme cases often require amputation.  Areas of the body most often affected include the nose, ears, cheeks, fingers and toes. Signs of frostbite include, numbness, skin discoloration (white or greyish-yellow), and unusually firm or waxy feeling skin.

While the symptoms of both hypothermia and frostbite can range in severity, victims generally require immediate re-warming and professional medical attention.

To stay safe in cold weather, the American Red Cross recommends:

  • Avoiding prolonged exposure to extremely low temperatures
  • Wearing layers of clothing to keep warm
  • Using hats and gloves to minimize the loss of body heat