Tag Archives: holiday

The Chances for a White Christmas

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The Holiday Season is here and many people are dreaming of a White Christmas. The likelihood of seeing those dreams come true, however, are largely dependent on where you live.

According to NOAA, a White Christmas is defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th. In the US, the climatological probability of having snow for Christmas is greatest across the northern tier of the country. Moving south, average temperatures increase and the odds for snow steadily decreases.

Here in New York City, the historical chance of having a White Christmas is about 12%. This low probability is largely due to the city’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and its moderating influence on temperature. This year, despite some chilly conditions and accumulating snow earlier in the month, NYC is expecting above average temperatures on the big day.  So, the city’s already minimal chance for a White Christmas has largely melted away.

Snow or no snow, The Weather Gamut wishes you a very Happy Holiday!

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

Weather and the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade

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The Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade is a long-standing holiday tradition in New York City.  For 90 years, it has marched rain or shine. Nevertheless, the weather has been a factor for the event several times over the years.

Famous for its giant character balloons, high winds are the main weather challenge for the parade. According to city guidelines, the multi-story balloons cannot fly if there are sustained winds in excess of 23 mph or gusts higher than 34 mph. These regulations were put in place following a 1997 incident where gusty winds sent the “Cat in the Hat” balloon careening into a light post, which caused debris to fall on spectators.

The only time the balloons were grounded for the entire parade was in 1971 when torrential rain swept across the city. In 1989, a snowstorm brought the Big Apple a white Thanksgiving with 4.7 inches of snow measured in Central Park. The parade marched on that year, but without the “Snoopy” and “Bugs Bunny” balloons as they were damaged by high winds earlier that morning.

This year, the wind is not expected to be a problem. Temperatures, however, are forecast to be a bit chilly – mostly in the mid-40s.  So, bundle up if you are planning to watch the parade in person.

Marching from West 77th Street to West 34th Street in Manhattan, the 90th Annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade is scheduled to begin at 9 AM on Thursday morning.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Paddington Bear Balloon floats down 6th Ave in Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Credit: Macy's

Paddington Bear Balloon floats down 6th Ave in Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Credit: Macy’s

NYC Election Day Weather

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Weather does not subscribe to any political party, but it can play a major role on Election Day. Studies show that it strongly influences how many people head out to the polls, especially if poor conditions are forecast.

Here in New York City, the weather is picture perfect this year. With blue skies and temperatures in the 60s, voter turnout is expected to be high.

The exact date of Election Day varies every year, but it is always the Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Below are some interesting local weather facts about the big day.

nyc_electionday

The exact date of Election Day varies every year, but it is always the Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Credit: The Weather Gamut.

National Weather Observer’s Day

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Today is National Weather Observer’s Day in the US. While not an official federal holiday, it is a day to celebrate people who love to observe the weather.

Without a doubt, weather is a serious business. Professional meteorologists work around the clock to monitor conditions and create forecasts aimed at protecting life and property. But, there are also non-professionals who are awe-inspired by the show Mother Nature puts on everyday. These enthusiasts love to observe and talk about the weather. Some even volunteer as “spotters” for the NWS to provide ground truth observations that supplement radar data. Simply put, these are people who are interested in weather beyond the emoji on their smart phone app.

It is also important to remember that the science of meteorology began with the work of dedicated amateur observers like John Jeffries, Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, and Luke Howard.  They were fascinated by weather and simply wanted to understand it better. As Henri Poincaré – the famous physicist and mathematician said,  “The scientist does not study nature because it is useful; he studies it because he delights in it, and he delights in it because it is beautiful.”

Earth Day 2016

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Everyday is Earth Day, as the saying goes. But, today marks the official celebration.

The first Earth Day – spearheaded by Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin – was held on April 22,1970.  An estimated 20 million people attended rallies across the US to protest against rampant industrial pollution and the deterioration of the nation’s natural environment. Raising public awareness and shifting the political tide, these events helped put environmental issues on the national agenda. They led to the creation of the EPA and the passage of the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, and the Endangered Species Act.

Forty-six years after the original, Earth Day celebrations are now held in nearly 200 countries. This year, the date is more significant than ever as hundreds of government officials from around the world gathered at the UN to sign the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

Image Credit: William Anders/NASA

“Earth Rise” from 1968 highlighted how fragile and unique the Earth really is.                              Credit: William Anders/NASA

St Patrick’s Day Weather History in NYC

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A longstanding tradition in New York City, the St. Patrick’s Day Parade has marched in all types of weather without missing a beat. Below is a look at the weather history for March 17th in the Big Apple.

While the first parade is reported to have taken place in 1762, official weather records for Central Park only date back to 1876. Even without information on the earliest events, the 140 years of data that are available show that the city has experienced a wide range of weather conditions on St Patrick’s Day. But given that March is when the seasons transition from winter to spring, this is not that surprising.

Looking back, rain dampened the parade only 47 times over 140 years and snow was only noted at ten events. Temperatures were above average about 33% of the time, but the overall trend shows warming conditions through the years especially after the 1970s. The city’s average high temperature on St Patrick’s Day is 50°F and the average low is 35°F.

Below are some charts based on NWS data showing the daily records for March 17th and the temperature history for the date in NYC.  Happy St. Patrick’s Day!

StPatsNYC

Source: NOAA/NWS

StPats_TempHistory

Source: NOAA/NWS

Record Cold Valentine’s Day in NYC

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An arctic blast sent NYC into a deep freeze this weekend. With temperatures dipping below 0°F on Sunday, it was the city’s coldest Valentine’s Day in one-hundred years!

According to the NWS, the temperature in Central Park fell to -1°F early Sunday morning. That is a staggering 30°F below average and shattered the previous record of 2°F set in 1916. It was also the first time the city’s temperature dipped below 0°F in 22 years. The high only made it to a frigid 15°F, a new record minimum maximum temperature for the date. When factoring in the wind chill, it felt as cold as -20°F. Our normal high for this time of year is 41°F and our normal low is 29°F.

As cold as it was on Sunday, it was not the coldest day the Big Apple has ever experienced. That dubious honor belongs to February 9, 1934, when the temperature fell to a brutal -15°F.

A weakened Polar Vortex and deep dip in the jet stream drove this weekend’s record cold conditions. But, temperatures are expected to rebound to above average levels by Tuesday. So, it seems this winter’s weather rollercoaster will continue moving forward.

A frosty heart. Credit: Baltimore Sun/AP

A frosty heart for a record cold Valentine’s Day. Credit: Baltimore Sun/AP

National Weatherperson’s Day 2016

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Today is National Weatherperson’s Day in the United States. While not an official federal holiday, it is a day to recognize the work of all individuals involved in the field of meteorology – not just prognosticating groundhogs.

According to the NWS, February 5, 1744 was the birthday of Dr. John Jeffries – one of America’s first weather observers. As a Boston based physician with a deep interest in weather, he kept detailed records of daily weather conditions from 1774 to 1816. He also took the first known upper air observations from a hot air balloon in 1784.

Recognizing the significant contributions Dr. Jeffries made to the science of meteorology, this date was chosen in his honor.

Dr. John Jeffries - National Weather Person's Day

Dr. John Jeffries taking weather measurements high above the ground in a hot air balloon. Source: Wonderful Balloon Acesnts

Groundhog Day 2016

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Today is Groundhog Day, the midpoint of the winter season.

On this day, according to legend, the weather conditions for the second half of winter can be predicted by the behavior of a prognosticating groundhog. If the groundhog sees its shadow after emerging from its burrow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If it does not see its shadow, then spring will arrive early.

The practice of using animal behavior to predict future weather conditions goes back to ancient times. The particular custom that we are familiar with in the United States grew out of the old world tradition of Candlemas that German settlers brought to Pennsylvania in the 1880s. Today, many communities across the U.S. and Canada continue this age-old ritual with their own special groundhogs.

The most famous of these furry forecasters is Punxsutawney Phil from Pennsylvania – he was portrayed in the 1993 film, “Groundhog Day”. Here in New York City, our local weather-groundhog is Charles G. Hogg – more popularly known as “Staten Island Chuck”. This year, neither groundhog saw its shadow and both are predicting an early spring.

Long-range forecasts can be a tricky business, so we will have to wait and see what actually happens. Either way, the spring equinox is 47 days away.

Punxsutawney Phil held in the gloved hands of his handler at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, PA. Credit: Syracuse.com

Punxsutawney Phil held in the gloved hands of one of his handlers at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, PA. Credit: Syracuse.com/AP

Warmest Christmas on Record for NYC

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It was not a White Christmas in New York City this year, but it was still one to remember as temperatures soared into the record books!

On Christmas Eve, the temperature in Central Park reached a spring-like 72°F. That is a staggering 32°F above average and shattered the old record of 63°F set in 1996. On Christmas Day, the mercury climbed to 66°F surpassing the previous record of 64°F from 1982. The city’s normal high for this time of year is 40°F and the normal low is 29°F.

The primary driver of this unseasonable warmth is El Niño. It has produced a fairly persistent ridge in the jet stream over the eastern part of the country lately that is allowing warm air from the south to flow further north than it normally would in winter.

Talking with both locals and visitors, reactions to this record warmth has been mixed. While some enjoyed being able to walk around without a coat, others said they missed the traditional chill that is associated with the Holiday Season in New York.

Record Warm Christmas Eve 2015, NYC. Photo Credit: Melissa Fleming

Holiday decorations felt out of season this Christmas Eve as temperatures soared to record highs in NYC. Photo Credit: Melissa Fleming