The Chances for a White Christmas 2015

The Holiday Season is here and many people are dreaming of a white Christmas. The likelihood of seeing those dreams come true, however, are largely dependent on where you live.

According to NOAA, a white Christmas is defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th.  In the US, the climatological probability of having snow for Christmas is greatest across the northern tier of the country. Moving south, average temperatures increase and the chance of snow steadily decreases.

Here in New York City, the historical chance of having a white Christmas is about 12%. This low probability is largely due to the city’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and its moderating influence on temperature. This year, with record breaking warm temperatures in the forecast, the city’s already minimal chance for snow has largely melted away.

Snow or no snow, The Weather Gamut wishes you and your family a very Happy Holiday!

Source: NOAA

The historical chances for a white Christmas across the contiguous US. Source: NOAA

A Warm Thanksgiving Holiday for NYC

With a high temperature of 60°F in Central Park, the Thanksgiving holiday was unusually warm here in New York City this year.  However, it was not a record breaker.  That honor belongs to Thanksgiving Day 1925 when the temperature reached 72°F. That said, it was a far cry from the chilly high of 38°F that we experienced last year on Turkey Day. Our normal high for this time of year is 50°F.

Below is a chart based on NWS data listing the top ten warmest and coldest Thanksgiving Days in NYC history.  Happy Thanksgiving!

Source: NWS

Thanksgiving is celebrated on the fourth Thursday of November, so the exact date varies from year to year. Source: NWS

Deforestation and Climate Change

Today is Arbor Day, a holiday that celebrates the importance of trees. As such, it seems appropriate to talk about the role deforestation plays in global climate change.

According to the World Wildlife Federation, deforestation and forest degradation account for 15% of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. That makes it the second largest human-generated source of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, behind only the burning of fossil fuels.

Forests are often called the “lungs” of our planet, as trees absorb CO2 and release oxygen as part of the process of photosynthesis. As such, forests act as carbon sinks. When cut down, the trees not only stop absorbing CO2, but they release it when they are burned or left to decompose. The WWF says we lose forests around the globe at the rate of 36 football fields every minute.

Deforestation is the large scale clearing of forests for other land uses. Its biggest drivers are agriculture and logging. In the tropics, where trees grow year round, forests are often cleared to make way for monoculture farms of palm oil or soybeans. While these crops also absorb CO2, it is far less than the amount absorbed and stored by native forests.

Deforestation also has localized climate impacts. Without trees to evaporate ground water and release it as water vapor though the process of transpiration, local climates tend to get drier. When it does rain, runoff increases and accelerates the rate of soil erosion. Deforestation also means a loss of habitat for numerous species of plants and animals, which lends itself to a decrease in biodiversity.

Recognizing the scale at which deforestation is impacting global climate change, policymakers at the UN adopted a set of policies known as REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation). They offer monetary incentives to governments in developing nations to maintain and manage their forests more sustainably.  In facing the challenges of climate change, mitigation efforts are needed on all fronts.

Earth Day 2015

Everyday is Earth Day, as the saying goes. Today, however, marks the official celebration.

The first Earth Day – spearheaded by Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin – was held on April 22, 1970. An estimated 20 million people attended rallies across the country to protest against rampant industrial pollution and the deterioration of the nation’s natural environment. Raising public awareness and shifting the political tide, these events helped put environmental issues on the national agenda. They lead to the creation of the EPA and the passage of the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, and the Endangered Species Act.

Today, forty-five years after the original, Earth Day is celebrated in 192 countries across the globe. Some communities have even expanded the celebration into Earth Week. These continuing efforts to raise environmental awareness are more important than ever as we face the challenges of Climate Change.

To learn more about Earth Day events near you and actions you can take to help the environment, visit: http://www.earthday.org/2015

To measure your personal carbon footprint, visit: http://www3.epa.gov/carbon-footprint-calculator/

Image Credit: William Anders/NASA

Earthrise. Image Credit: William Anders/NASA

Similar Weather for Easter and Christmas in NYC

Easter and Christmas are major holidays associated with the beginning of two different seasons – spring and winter, respectively. Nonetheless, the weather conditions for their most recent occurrences in New York City were oddly similar.

The high temperature in Central Park yesterday, Easter Sunday, was 61°F and the low was 42°F.  Back on Christmas Day, December 25th, the high was 62°F and the low was 44°F, tying the record for the city’s third warmest Christmas. Conditions this Easter were only slightly above average for the date.

The warmest Easter on record for NYC, according to the local National Weather Service office, was in 1976 when the high temperature reached 96°F. The coldest was in 1940 when the high was only 31°F.

Searching for the End of a Rainbow

At the end of a rainbow, according to Irish folklore, lies a leprechaun’s pot of gold. In reality, however, the true end of a rainbow is impossible to locate.

A rainbow is an optical phenomenon that forms when water droplets in the air both refract and reflect sunlight to reveal the colors of the visible spectrum in an arch formation. It is not a physical entity that can be touched or approached. To see them, the National Center for Atmospheric Research says you need to be both facing the source of moisture and be standing at a 42° angle to the sun’s rays.

This specific line of sight means that no two people will ever see the exact same rainbow. It also means that as you attempt to move closer to the rainbow, the further away it will appear. So, try as you might, you will never get close enough to see a rainbow’s true terminus.

In the end, rainbows are all about perception.  For many people, even without the promise of a pot of gold, the joy of sighting a beautiful rainbow is reward enough.  Happy Saint Patrick’s Day!

Rainbow appears to end in the Atlantic Ocean off Bermuda's coastline.  Image Credit: The Weather Gamut

A rainbow appears to end in the Atlantic Ocean off Bermuda’s coastline.                      Image Credit: The Weather Gamut.

Weather History: National Weatherperson’s Day

Today is National Weatherperson’s Day in the United States. While not an official federal holiday, it is a day to recognize the work of all individuals involved in the field of meteorology – not just prognosticating groundhogs.

According to the NWS, February 5, 1744 was the birthday of Dr. John Jeffries – one of America’s first weather observers.  As a Boston based physician with a deep interest in weather, he kept detailed records of daily weather conditions from 1774 to 1816.  He also took the first known weather observation from a hot air balloon in 1784. Recognizing the significant contributions Dr. Jeffries made to the science of weather, this date was chosen in his honor.

Technology has grown by leaps and bounds since the 18th century, but the core work of meteorologists has not changed. They continue to gather and analyze weather data to provide forecasts and warnings to the public in an effort to protect lives and property across the country.

Dr. John Jeffries taking weather measurements from hot air balloon.  Source: Wonderful Balloon Acesnts

Dr. John Jeffries taking weather measurements from a hot air balloon in 1784.  Source: Wonderful Balloon Ascents.

Groundhog Day 2015

Today is Groundhog Day, the midpoint of the winter season.

On this day, according to legend, the weather conditions for the second half of winter can be predicted by the behavior of a prognosticating groundhog.  If the groundhog sees its shadow after emerging from its burrow, there will be six more weeks of winter.  If it does not see its shadow, then spring will arrive early.

The practice of using animal behavior to predict future weather conditions goes back to ancient times.  The particular custom that we are familiar with in the United States grew out of the old world tradition of Candlemas brought by German settlers to Pennsylvania in the 1880s. Today, many communities across the U.S. and Canada continue this age-old ritual with their own special groundhogs.

The most famous of these furry forecasters is Punxsutawney Phil from Pennsylvania – he was portrayed in the 1993 film, “Groundhog Day”. This year, despite an overcast sky, Phil saw his shadow and is calling for six more weeks of wintry conditions.

In New York City, our local weather-groundhog is Charles G. Hogg – more popularly known as “Staten Island Chuck”.  Coming out of his burrow this morning, he did not see his shadow and is predicting an early spring for the Big Apple.

Long-range forecasts are a tricky business, so a difference of opinion is not that uncommon. Either way, the spring equinox is 46 days away.

The Chances for a White Christmas 2014

The Holiday Season is here and many people are dreaming of a white Christmas. The likelihood of seeing those dreams come true, however, are largely dependent on where you live.

According to NOAA, a white Christmas is defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th.  In the US, the climatological probability of having snow for Christmas is greatest across the northern tier of the country. Moving south, average temperatures increase and the chance of snow steadily decreases.

Here in New York City, the historical chance of having a white Christmas is about 12%. This low probability is largely due to the city’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and its moderating influence on temperature. This year, with rain and unseasonably warm temperatures in the forecast, the city’s already minimal chance for snow has largely melted away.

Snow or no snow, The Weather Gamut wishes you and your family a very Happy Holiday!

Source: NOAA

Data based on the latest (1981-2010) U.S. Climate Normals from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. Source: NOAA

Thomas Jefferson: Father of Weather Observers

As the main author of the Declaration of Independence and the third President of the United States, Thomas Jefferson is regarded as one of this country’s Founding Fathers. He was also an astute and systematic weather observer.

For over 40 years, Jefferson kept a meticulous weather journal.  He recorded daily temperature data wherever he was – at home in Virginia or while traveling. In an effort to better understand the bigger picture of climate in America, he established a small network of fellow observers around Virginia as well as contacts in a few other states. According to records at Monticello, he hoped to establish a national network for weather observations. While this plan did not come to fruition during his lifetime, today’s National Weather Service considers him the “father of weather observers.”

On July 4, 1776, Jefferson was in Philadelphia, PA for the signing of the Declaration of Independence and noted that the high temperature for that now famous day was 76°F.

Happy 4th of July!