Tag Archives: international

El Niño has Arrived

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Its official!  NOAA has announced that an El Niño event is underway in the Pacific Ocean. But what, you may wonder, is an El Niño and how will it impact weather in the US?

El Niño is the warm phase of the larger El Niño-Southern Oscillation, known as ENSO. Developing every 3 to 7 years, it is a naturally occurring oceanic-atmospheric coupled phenomenon that influences weather around the globe.

To detect its presence, scientists monitor the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). This index is based on sea surface temperature anomalies in a rectangular region of the tropical Pacific between 5°N and 5°S latitude and from 120°W to 170°W longitude. When sea surface temperature anomalies in this region exceed +0.5°C, a weak El Nino is present. When they reach +1°C, it is considered a moderate El Niño, and when they go above +1.5°C it is classified as a strong El Niño event.

But warming ocean temperatures are only half the story. There also needs to be a corresponding change in the atmosphere for an El Niño event to be declared. Specifically, there needs to be a weakening of the east-to-west flow of the Trade Winds and a change in tropical rainfall patterns.

Influencing the position of the polar and sub-tropical jet streams, El Niño is most noticeable during autumn and winter. In the US, its impacts typically include wetter than average conditions in California and most of the southern states while drier than average conditions settle across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and northern Rockies. In terms of temperature, the southwest and southern plains tend to be cooler than average while the northern tier of the country is generally warmer than average.

Since every El Niño is different, it is important to remember that none of the regional impacts listed above are guaranteed. We will have to wait and see how this newest El Niño event plays outs.

Credit: Science Island

Credit: Science Island

Second-Warmest January on Record for Planet Earth

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Last year, 2014, was the hottest year ever recorded on this planet. January 2015 continued the trend, ranking as the second-warmest January on record.

According to a report released by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 54.99°F. That is 1.39°F above the 20th century average. The warmest January on record  occurred in 2007, when the temperature was 1.55°F above the long-term norm.

While heat dominated most of the planet last month, some places were particularly warm. China had its warmest January on record since 1961. In the contiguous US, seven western states – California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming – each experienced a January rated in their top ten warmest.

Global climate records go back to 1880.

Image Credit: NOAA/NCDC

Image Credit: NOAA/NCDC

2014: Warmest Year on Record for Planet Earth

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Its official!  2014 was the warmest year ever recorded on planet Earth.

According to a report released today by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Earth’s combined average temperature for the year – over both land and sea surfaces – was 58.33°F.  That is 1.33°F above the 20th century average. It surpassed the previous annual record held by both 2005 and 2010 by 0.07°F.  2014 also marked the 38th consecutive year that our global temperature was above its long-term norm.

Rising ocean temperatures, according to NOAA, helped fuel this record warmth. The globally averaged sea surface temperature for 2014 was 1.03°F above the 20th century average of 60.9°F.  That is the highest on record, breaking the former record set in 1998 and tied in 2003 by 0.09°F.

It is interesting to note that ENSO-neutral conditions were present during all of 2014. That means El Niño, the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) did not influence this record warm year. Scientists, while acknowledging the decrease in the rate of warming over the past decade, say this fact undeniably confirms the continuation of global warming.

While heat dominated most of the planet in 2014, including parts of Alaska and the western United States, the eastern two-thirds of this country was one of the few cold pockets. Overall, the contiguous US experienced its 34th warmest year on record. This highlights the fact that climate change is a complex global phenomenon that involves much more than what is happening in our own backyards.

With records going back to 1880, nine of this planet’s top ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 2000. The only exception was 1998. As greenhouse gases – which drive our global temperature upward – are continuously emitted into the atmosphere, scientists say we can expect global temperatures to continue to rise and more warm records to be broken.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Warmest December on Record for Planet Earth

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Like most of the US, including here in NYC, temperatures across the globe soared last month.  In fact, December 2014 was Earth’s warmest December on record.

According to the latest report from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, the planet’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 55.39°F.  That is 1.39°F above the 20th century average. December 2014 also marked the 6th month this year to break a global temperature record.

The calendar year of 2014 (January – December), is now ranked as the warmest year on record for planet Earth. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

201412

Credit: NOAA

Modest Deal Reached at UN Climate Conference in Lima

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After two weeks of negotiations, a global agreement – however modest – was reached at the UN Climate Change Conference in Lima, Peru this weekend.

The deal, known as the Lima Accord, marks the first time in history that all nations have agreed to reduce their rates of greenhouse gas emissions. Up until now, only developed nations had been required to act.  Since the UN first started holding climate change conferences in the mid-1990s, many of the larger less developed nations, including China, India, and Brazil, have become industrial powerhouses adding significant amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.  In fact, China is now the world’s largest carbon polluter.

Under the current agreement, every country will submit an “intended nationally determined contribution” or INDC.   These are essentially plans, due in the spring, in which individual countries spell out how much CO2 emissions they propose to cut after 2020 based on their own domestic economic and political situations. Collectively, these independent plans will form the framework for a global climate treaty set to be finalized at the UN Climate Conference in Paris late next year.

While this bottom-up approach helped secure the participation of all countries, it is not legally binding and leaves countries with the latitude to make as little a contribution as possible. That said, this new accord cuts through some of the historic blame game and recognizes climate change as a global problem that requires a global solution. The question is, will the proposed aggregate reductions in greenhouse gases be enough to meet the current international goal of limiting global warming to less than 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels and stave off the worst impacts of climate change?

How Greenhouse Gases Influence Climate

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The latest round of UN climate change talks is currently underway in Lima, Peru. Representatives from nearly 190 countries are meeting to discuss ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the main driver of global warming.

Earth’s atmosphere is made up of a variety of gases, mostly nitrogen and oxygen by volume. The greenhouse gases, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane, represent a smaller percentage, but are also a natural part of the mix. Acting like the windowpanes of a traditional glass greenhouse, these gases allow the sun’s energy (shortwave radiation) to pass through the atmosphere during the day and heat the Earth’s surface. At night, the greenhouse gases trap some of the heat (long-wave radiation) that the surface emits as it cools.  In essence, greenhouse gases function like a blanket that help keep the planet warm. Without them, the average surface temperature of the Earth would be 0°F – a temperature at which all the water on the planet would be frozen and life as we know it would not exist. Having too many greenhouse gases is also a problem – one that we are currently facing.

Simply put, more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap more heat and increase the planet’s average temperature. During the last century, according to the IPCC, Earth’s mean temperature rose 1.5°F.  As temperatures continue to rise, long established weather patterns and storm tracks are shifting. Different regions, in turn, are being affected in different ways. Some areas are getting wetter, while others are getting dryer, and coastal communities are feeling the impacts of rising sea levels.

Scientists say that while some greenhouse gases come from natural sources like volcanic eruptions, the vast majority entering our atmosphere today come from human activities that burn fossil fuels. Before the industrial revolution in the late 1700’s, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were 280 parts-per-million (ppm). This year, it passed 400ppm for the first time in human history. In addition, according to NOAA, 2014 is on track to be the planet’s warmest year on record.

Any agreements reached in Lima on reducing greenhouse gas emissions will be used as the framework for a binding global treaty at the UN Climate Conference in Paris next year.

Source: dec.ny.gov

Source: dec.ny.gov

Warmest October on Record for Planet Earth

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Temperatures across the country and around the world soared last month. In fact, October 2014 was the 4th warmest October on record for the contiguous United States and the warmest ever recorded for the entire planet.

According to the latest global climate report released Thursday by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 58.43°F.  That is 1.33°F above the 20th century average. October 2014 also marked the 38th consecutive October that our global temperature was above its long-term norm and the 5th month this year to break a global temperature record.

Rising ocean temperatures, according to NOAA, helped fuel this record warmth. The global sea surface temperature for October was 1.12°F above the 20th century average of 60.6°F.  That is the highest on record for October and the sixth consecutive month to post a record high global sea surface temperature. Given all this warm water, it is interesting to note that El Niño conditions are not present in the Pacific.

Year to date, the first ten months of 2014 were the warmest of any year on record. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

US and China Reach Climate Change Agreement

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The United States and China have teamed up to tackle the pressing global issue of climate change. President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping announced their ambitious bi-lateral agreement in a joint press conference on Wednesday in Beijing, where both leaders were attending the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.

Under this historic agreement, the US will reduce its carbon emissions by 26% – 28% below its 2005 levels by 2025. China will cap its growing emissions by 2030, if not earlier, and increase its use of non-fossil fuels by 20% by the same year.

While ambitious, climate scientists say the amount of emission cuts laid out in this bi-lateral agreement alone will not be enough to meet the current global goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels. That said, it does clear the path for other nations to take similar actions.

China and the US are the world’s two largest economies and two largest carbon polluters. By acting together, President Obama said, “We hope to encourage all major economies to be ambitious – all countries, developing and developed – to work across some of the old divides, so we can conclude a strong global climate agreement next year.”

The first indications of whether this bi-lateral action will spur long stalled global climate negotiations will come this December at the next round of UN climate talks in Lima, Peru. After that, the big test will be the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, where the objective is a binding global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Any deal reached there will go into effect in 2020.

IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report

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The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the final installment of its massive fifth assessment report on Sunday.  It synthesizes the reports from each of its three working groups – physical science, impacts and vulnerabilities, and mitigation.

Here are some the key findings:

  • “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.”
  • “Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.”
  • “Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence) with only about 1% stored in the atmosphere.”
  • “Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m.  The rate of sea-level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence).”
  • “Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios. It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and last longer, and that extreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent in many regions. The ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level to rise.”
  • “Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts for people, species and ecosystems. Continued high emissions would lead to mostly negative impacts for biodiversity, ecosystem services, and economic development and amplify risks for livelihoods and for food and human security.”
  • “Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change impacts, but there are limits to its effectiveness, especially with greater magnitudes and rates of climate change.”
  • “Without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally (high confidence).”
  • “There are multiple mitigation pathways that are likely to limit warming to below 2°C relative to pre- industrial levels. These pathways would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades, and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived GHGs by the end of the century.”
  • “Effective adaptation and mitigation responses will depend on policies and measures across multiple scales: international, regional, national and sub-national.”

This synthesis report will be used as a guide for the policy makers attending the UN Global Climate Summit scheduled for December 2015 in Paris. Any treaty agreed to there will take effect in 2020.

Warmest September on Record for Planet Earth

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Temperatures across the globe soared last month. In fact, September 2014 was the warmest September ever recorded for the entire planet.

According to a report released Monday by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 60.3°F.  That is 1.3°F above the 20th century average. September 2014 also marked the 355th consecutive month that our global temperature was above its long-term norm.

This record warm September comes on the heels of the planet’s warmest summer and marks the fourth month this year to break a global temperature record. The other three months were May, June, and August. It is also interesting to note that all four of these monthly heat records occurred when El Niño conditions were not present in the Pacific.

Year to date, 2014 is now tied with 1998 for the warmest first nine months of the year on record. NOAA says, “If 2014 maintains this temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year, it will be the warmest year on record.”

The contiguous United States, by comparison, posted its coolest September in three years. This highlights the fact that climate change is a complex global phenomenon that involves much more than what is happening in our own backyards. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA