Tag Archives: international

IPCC Report: Humans Causing Climate Change

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its fifth assessment report (AR5) on Friday.  It clearly states that climate change is real and human activities are the main drivers.

Authored by hundreds of scientists from around the world, the report says, “It is extremely likely (95% confidence) that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-twentieth century.” This is stronger language than the panels’ previous report in 2007, which said human activities that emit greenhouse gases were “very likely” (90% confidence) causing the atmosphere to warm. As a consensus report with data gathered from thousands of peer-reviewed published research papers, the wording is very conservative.  Even so, the change of phrasing reflects a significant improvement in scientific understanding and increasing certainty on the issue.

According to the report, global average temperatures have increased 1.5°F between 1880 and 2012. Offering four different scenarios for the future, based on varying controls of greenhouse gas emissions, the panel projects an additional rise in global temperatures ranging from 0.5°F to 8.6°F.  They say the worst impacts of climate change will only be avoided if warming is limited to 3.6°F above pre-industrial levels.  To do this, the report endorses a carbon budget for the atmosphere – an absolute ceiling on greenhouse gas emissions – of one trillion tons.  Globally, we have already released one-half of that amount and energy demand is growing.

The report also found that global average sea level has risen 7.5 inches since 1901. As the world’s oceans thermally expand and land ice continues to melt, the panel expects sea levels to rise another 10 to 38 inches by the end of the century.

Despite the fact that last decade was the warmest on record and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, climate change still has its skeptics.   One of their fundamental arguments is the decrease in the rate of warming over the past fifteen years. While acknowledging the slowdown, the IPCC emphasizes the fact that short-term records are sensitive to natural variability and do not represent a long-term climate trend. A thirty-year data set is the minimum rule of thumb for dealing with climate and the long-term trend shows overall warming.  In fact, the report states, “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.”

Formed by the United Nations in 1988, the IPCC assesses climate change and its impacts on society.  It consists of three working groups that publish reports every five to six years.  This most recent document was issued by Working Group I, which focuses on the science of climate change.  Working Groups II and III deal with adaptation and mitigation, respectively. Their reports are due out early next year.  When put together, they form the scientific basis for all U.N. negotiations on global climate treaties.

IPCC_AR5_temps

Graph Credit: IPCC

Two Tropical Storms Cause Flood Disaster in Mexico

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The hurricane season in the U.S. has been fairly slow this year – at least so far.  Mexico, our neighbor to the south, however, has not been so lucky.

Hit from both sides, Mexico was slammed by two separate tropical storms this week.   Manuel moved in from the Pacific and Ingrid came ashore from the Gulf.  Both storms brought torrential rain that caused widespread flooding, landslides, and power outages.  Impacting millions of people across the country, this one-two punch of extreme weather claimed the lives of at least one hundred people and displaced thousands more. 

One of the hardest hit areas was Acapulco on the west coast, where 7.43 inches of rain is reported to have fallen in one twenty-four hour period.  The flooding was so severe in this popular resort town that it turned roads into raging muddy rivers and carried crocodiles into the city.  With the only highway out of town destroyed in a landslide and the airport submerged in waist deep water,  locals along with nearly forty-thousand tourists have been stranded there for days.  

According to the Mexican National Weather Service, the last time Mexico was hit by two tropical storms within a span of twenty-four hours was back in 1958.

Hottest Decade on Record for Planet Earth: 2001-2010

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Climate scientists have noted it for years, but now it is official. The first decade of the 21st century was this planet’s hottest on record.

According to a report recently released by the World Meteorological Organization, Earth’s combined average temperature – over both land and sea surfaces – for the decade of 2001-2010 was 58.05°F.  That is 0.85°F above the long-term norm.  As hot as this period was, this new record does not come as much of a surprise.  Every year in the decade except 2008 was among the top ten warmest on record.

Analyzing data from 139 countries, the report showed that the decade was also marked by extreme weather around the globe. Floods were the most frequent type of event, but droughts impacted the largest number of people worldwide.  Massive hurricanes and scorching heat waves also caused serious problems.  While improved early warning systems for storms and floods helped save countless lives, heat related deaths increased dramatically from the previous decade. In total, extreme weather events during this ten-year period claimed the lives of more than 370,000 people.

Earth Day

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Everyday is Earth Day, as the saying goes.  Today, however, marks the official celebration.

Gaylord Nelson, a US Senator from Wisconsin, is credited with organizing the first Earth Day on April 22, 1970.  Rallies were held across the country and millions of people came out to protest against rampant industrial pollution and the deterioration of the nation’s natural environment.  These events led to the creation of the EPA and the passage of the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, and the Endangered Species Act.

Today, 43 years after the original, Earth Day is an international holiday celebrated in 192 countries.  These continuing efforts to raise environmental awareness are more important than ever as our global society faces the challenges of Climate Change.

Earth

Image Credit: NASA

Tenth Warmest March on Record for Planet Earth

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March 2013 was unusually cool across most of the eastern United States, including here in New York City.  For much of the rest of the world, however, it was warmer than average.

According to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, March 2013 tied March 2006 as the tenth warmest March on record for the entire globe.  The planet’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and ocean surfaces – was 55.14°F, which is 1.04°F above the 20th century average.

March 2013 also marked the 337th consecutive month that our global temperature was above its long-term norm. That means the last below-average global temperature for any month was February 1985.

GlobalTemps_March2013Image Credit: NOAA

Alberta Clippers

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The winter season can produce a number of different types of storms. Recently, Alberta Clippers have been dominating the forecast in the eastern United States.

An Alberta Clipper is a fast moving winter storm system that originates in the Canadian Rockies, specifically in the province of Alberta.  Once formed, these storms tend to get caught up in the jet stream and travel southeast across the US.  Alberta Clippers, unlike nor’easters, usually do not produce large amounts of snow.  Moving quickly over land, they generally lack significant moisture.  Clippers are, however, known for their strong winds and cold temperatures.

This type of storm system takes its name not only from its place of origin, but also from the clipper ships of the 19th century – the early days of meteorology.  Back then, clippers were the fastest sailing ships of the time.

Clipper

Image Credit: NOAA

Extreme Heat: Australia Adds New Colors to Weather Map

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It is summer in Australia and it is hot!  Facing unprecedented heat, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has added two new temperature categories – with corresponding colors – to their forecast map.

Previously capped at 50°C (122°F), the new map can represent readings up to 54°C  (129.2°F). Deep purple and hot pink will now indicate areas experiencing these new temperature ranges.

While Australia’s all time record high of 50.7°C (123.3°F), set on January 2,1960 in South Australia, currently still stands, this revised map anticipates a new record high.  For many, it also reflects a new climate reality.

Australian Bureau of Metereology temperature map with new colors to show extreme heat. Image Credit: ABM

Australian Bureau of Metereology temperature map with new colors to show extreme heat.   Image Credit: ABM

Fifth Warmest November for Planet Earth

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November of this year was unseasonably cool along the east coast of the United States, including here in New York City.  Much of the rest of the planet, however, was exceptionally warm.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, November 2012 was the fifth warmest November on record for the entire globe.  Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 56.41°F, which is 1.21°F above the 20th century average.  This November also marks the 333rd consecutive month that our global temperature was above its long-term norm.

While a certain amount of climate variability is natural, it is important to note that since record keeping began in 1880, our planet’s ten warmest Novembers have all occurred in the past twelve years.  In contrast, the ten coolest Novembers were all recorded prior to 1920.

Nov2012_Global_Temps

Image Credit: National Climatic Data Center

Fourth Warmest July for Planet Earth

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July of this year, as mentioned in a previous post, was the hottest month on record for the contiguous United States.  The heat, however, was not limited to this country’s borders.

The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reported today that July 2012 was the fourth warmest July ever recorded for the entire globe.  The planet’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and ocean surfaces – was 61.52°F, which is 1.12°F above the 20th century average.  July 2012 was also the 329th consecutive month that our global temperature was above the long-term norm.

While heat dominated most of the planet last month, some areas, such as Alaska, Australia, and parts of Europe, posted below average temperatures.  Experts say these pockets of cooler conditions are normal, but note that they are shrinking as the Earth’s atmosphere warms overall.

Chocolate and Climate Change

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Today is Valentine’s Day and the exchange of heart-shaped chocolates is a tradition for many couples.  The price of this customary gift, however, is forecast to increase as cocoa, the main ingredient in chocolate, faces the challenges of climate change.

Chocolate, a nine-billion-dollar global industry, obtains more than 50% of its cocoa supply from the West African nations of Ghana and Ivory Coast. A recent study by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture found that within the next 20 to 40 years, the climate of this region is likely to become too warm to continue growing the fragile cacao trees.  In the shorter term, extreme weather events like drought are threatening this sensitive crop.  As a result, supplies are likely to fall causing prices to go up.

So, enjoy your chocolate treat this Valentine’s Day and remember that this sweet gift is likely to be more dear in the future.

Chocolate Hearts for Valentine's Day

Image Credit: phoenixnewtimes.com