Tag Archives: international

Outcomes of the UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh

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The UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, known as COP 22, concluded on Saturday. Building on the momentum of the 2015 Paris Agreement, it began the process of putting the details of that historic accord into action.

Years in the making, the Paris Agreement set the target of holding global warming to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, nearly 200 countries submitted individual voluntary emissions reduction plans known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Based on the current collection of NDCs, which vary widely in ambition, the agreement will only cut greenhouse gas emissions by about half of what is necessary to reach the 2°C (3.6°F) goal. It does, however, legally obligate countries to publically report how much emissions they have actually eliminated and to reassess their plans every five years.

One of the main goals of the Marrakesh meeting was to create a standardized rulebook to monitor and report on these independent undertakings. But after two weeks of negotiations and to the dismay of those hoping for quicker action, the diplomats agreed on 2018 as the deadline for setting up this vital framework. The finance of climate adaptation – the touchy subject of who will pay for what in terms of helping poor nations adapt to climate change – was also punted two years down the road. However, they did issue the Marrakech Action Proclamation re-affirming their commitment to the Paris Agreement and their promises to combat climate change.

Although ratified in record time, the Paris Agreement is a fragile accord. All commitments are voluntary and vulnerable to the political will of individual governments – both now and in the future. Moreover, there are no penalties for those who do not live up to their promises. This is why the election of Mr. Trump as the next US President sent shockwaves through the meeting in Morocco.

The President-elect has famously called climate change a “hoax” and said he would withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement. While only time will tell if Mr. Trump will follow through on his rhetoric of climate change denial, the rest of the world seems willing to move forward with plans to tackle this critical issue.

Outside of the formal COP meetings, the positive spirit of the Paris Agreement pushed forward. Four countries – Canada, Germany, Mexico and the US – announced their climate action plans through 2050. With one of the more aggressive proposals, Germany aims to essentially stop using fossil fuels and reduce its emissions between 80% and 95% by mid-century. Furthermore, a group of forty-eight developing nations, members of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, declared their intention to switch to 100% renewable energy between 2030 and 2050.

The Marrakech meeting was the 22nd session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The next conference (COP 23) will take place in November 2017 in Bonn, Germany.

Credit: UN

Credit: UN

October 2016: Third Warmest October on Record for Planet Earth

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Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with October 2016 tying 2003 as the third warmest October ever recorded on this planet.

According to a report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 58.4°F. That is 1.31°F above the 20th-century average and only 0.47°F shy of the record that was set last year.

While heat dominated most of the planet this October, some places were particularly warm, including parts of Canada and Greenland. Here in the contiguous US, it was our third warmest October on record and warmest since 1963.

These soaring global temperatures are attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. Whereas El Niño gave temperatures a boost earlier in the year, it dissipated in June. In fact, its cooler counterpart, La Niña,  prevailed in October.

Year to date, the first ten months of 2016 were the warmest of any year on record. This significantly increases the likelihood that 2016 will surpass 2015 as the Earth’s warmest year ever recorded. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

October 2016 was Earth's third warmest October on record. Credit: NOAA

October 2016 was Earth’s third warmest October on record. Credit: NOAA

The UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh is Underway

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COP 22, the UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, Morocco, is underway. The goal of this massive meeting is to turn the ideas outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement into action.

Years in the making, the Paris Agreement set the target of holding global warming to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, nearly 200 countries submitted individual voluntary emissions reduction plans known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

Moving into the next phase of this historic agreement, the diplomats attending the Marrakesh meeting will hash out the framework needed to monitor and report on these independent undertakings. The ideal system would involve an independent panel with consistent standards that monitors countries to see if they are following through on their greenhouse gas reduction pledges. This type of reporting, it is believed, would encourage accountability as it applies the power of public scrutiny. Some countries, however, are expected to argue for a self-monitoring system. China and India, two of the world’s largest polluters, are likely to push for this less public path.

Another big topic at the Marrakesh meeting will be money. During the Paris talks last year, the wealthy nations of the world said they would create a fund and spend $100 billion a year to help poor nations adapt to climate change. Negotiators will have to work out the details of where and how this money be spent.

Although ratified in record time, the Paris Agreement is still a fragile accord. All commitments are voluntary and vulnerable to the political will of each individual government. Moreover, there are no penalties for those who do not live up to their promises.

That said, expectations going into Marrakesh are high as governments around the world have shown a willingness to act on climate change outside the parameters of the Paris Agreement. Last month, global leaders agreed to reduce the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a potent greenhouse gas commonly used as a coolant in refrigerators and air-conditioners. They also agreed to make airplanes more fuel-efficient and reduce the overall carbon footprint of air travel.

The Marrakesh conference runs through November 18.

Credit: UN

Credit: UN

September 2016: Second Warmest September on Record for Planet Earth

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Temperatures around the globe soared last month. In fact, September 2016 was the second warmest September ever recorded for the entire planet.

According to a report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 60.6°F. That is 1.60°F above the 20th-century average and only 0.07°F shy the record that was set last year.

This second place finish effectively ends a 16-month stretch of record warm global monthly temperatures – the longest such streak on NOAA’s books.

While heat dominated most of the planet this September, some places were particularly warm. Several countries in Europe posted readings that were among their top five warmest for the month. These included Germany, the UK, France, Holland, and Austria. Here in the contiguous US, it was our ninth warmest September on record.

These soaring temperatures are attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. Whereas El Niño gave global temperatures a boost earlier in the year, it dissipated in June. ENSO-neutral conditions, according to NOAA, prevailed in September.

Year to date, the first nine months of 2016 were the warmest of any year on record. This significantly increases the likelihood that 2016 will surpass 2015 as the Earth’s warmest year ever recorded. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

September 2016 was the second warmest September on record for the entire planet. Credit: NOAA

September 2016 was the second warmest September on record for the entire planet. Credit: NOAA

Paris Climate Change Agreement Enters into Force

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The Paris Climate Agreement is signed, sealed, and delivered. Approved domestically by the requisite number of signatories with unusual speed, it will enter into force in 30 days.

The historic deal negotiated at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris last December required ratification by 55 countries, representing 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions before it could go into effect. This double threshold was passed this week when the EU, Canada, and a number of smaller states officially ratified the agreement. To date, according to the UN, 72 countries representing more than 56% of emissions have signed on to the deal including the US, China, and India – the world’s three largest carbon polluters.

The aim of this international agreement is to limit global warming to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, it employs a mix of voluntary and legally binding actions. While every country submitted their own emissions reduction plan known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), there was no requirement quantifying the amount of greenhouse gases they had to cut or how it had to be done. Additionally, there are no penalties for those who do not live up to their promises. Instead, the accord depends heavily on global peer pressure and the hope that no country wants to be seen as a slacker in the eyes of the world.

Based on the current collection of national plans, which vary widely in ambition, this agreement will only cut greenhouse gas emissions by about half of what is necessary to reach the 2°C (3.6°F) goal. The accord, however, does legally obligate countries to publically report how much emissions they have actually eliminated and to reassess their plans every five years.

While flawed, the Paris Accord is the world’s first truly global climate agreement. It marks the culmination of a very long, and often tumultuous, international political process that began at the Rio Earth Summit 24 years ago. That said, the hard part still lies ahead.

Individual nations need to stay the course and implement the commitments in their NDCs. The framework needed to monitor and report on these independent undertakings will be negotiated at the next UN Climate Change Conference (COP22) in Marrakesh, Morocco this November. The Paris Agreement will come into force on November 4th.

Paris Climate Change Agreement has met the double threshold required to enter into force. Credit: UN

The Paris Climate Change Agreement met the double threshold required to enter into force on October 5, 2016. Credit: UN

Warmest August and Warmest Summer On Record for Planet Earth

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Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with August 2016 not only marking the warmest August on record but also closing out the warmest meteorological summer ever recorded for the entire planet.

According to a report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for August – over both land and sea surfaces – was 61.77°F, which is 1.66°F above the 20th-century average. It surpassed the previous record set just last year by 0.09°F.

August 2016 also marked the 16th month in a row to break a monthly global temperature record – the longest such streak on NOAA’s books. Moreover, it was the 380th consecutive month with a temperature above its long-term norm. That means the last time any month posted a below average reading was December 1984.

The three-month period of June, July, and August – known as the meteorological summer in the northern hemisphere – was also a record breaker. NOAA reports that Earth’s average temperature for the season was 1.60°F above the 20th-century average.  That is 0.07°F above the previous record that was set in 2015.

While heat dominated most of the planet from June to August, some places were particularly warm, including Asia and Africa where continent-wide temperature records were broken. Here in the contiguous US, the summer of 2016 tied with 2006 as our fifth warmest on record. While every state in the lower-48 experienced above average temperatures, California, Connecticut, and Rhode Island were each record warm. Alaska posted its second warmest summer on record.

These soaring temperatures are attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. Whereas El Niño gave global temperatures a boost earlier in the year, it dissipated in early June. ENSO-neutral conditions have since prevailed across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Year to date, the first eight months of 2016 were the warmest of any year on record. This increases the likelihood that 2016 will surpass 2015 as the Earth’s warmest year ever recorded. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

July 2016: Warmest Month on Record for Planet Earth

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Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with July 2016 marking not only the warmest July on record, but also the warmest month ever recorded for the entire planet.

According to a report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 62.01°F. That is 1.57°F above the 20th century average and 0.11°F above the previous record that was set just last year.

July 2016 also marked the 15th month in a row to break a monthly global temperature record – the longest such streak on NOAA’s books. Moreover, it was the 379th consecutive month with a temperature above the 20th century average. That means the last time any month posted a below average reading was December 1984.

Since July is climatologically the Earth’s warmest month of the year, the July 2016 global temperature was also the highest temperature for any month on record.

While heat dominated most of the planet last month, some places were particularly warm, including various countries in Asia and the Middle East where temperatures hit record levels. Here in the contiguous US, it was our 14th warmest July on record. Florida and New Mexico were each record warm.

These soaring temperatures, scientists say, were driven by the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. While El Niño gave global temperatures a boost earlier in the year, it has since dissipated. In fact, ENSO neutral conditions prevailed across the tropical Pacific Ocean this July.

Year to date, the first seven months of 2016 were the warmest of any year on record. This increases the likelihood that 2016 will surpass 2015 as the Earth’s warmest year ever recorded. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

July 2016 was the warmest July and warmest month on record for planet Earth. Credit: NOAA

July 2016 was the warmest July and the warmest month on record for planet Earth. Credit: NOAA

200th Anniversary of the ‘Year Without a Summer’

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Two hundred years ago, the warm weather we typically associate with summer never materialized for large areas of the globe, including the eastern United States and Europe. As a result, 1816 has become known as the year without a summer.

This historic cold spell was caused by the eruption of Indonesia’s Mount Tambora in April 1815 – the most powerful volcanic eruption ever recorded. While it devastated the immediate area and unleashed a deadly tsunami, it was the the massive amounts of sulfur dioxide spewed out by the volcano that had far-reaching impacts on the global climate.

After an eruption, ash and debris can cool a region for a few days by blocking out the sun. However, extremely powerful eruptions – like Tambora – can send gas clouds into the stratosphere – an altitude above where our daily weather takes place. The stability of this layer of the atmosphere means the sulfur dioxide can linger there for several months. Moving around the globe easily at this level, the sulfur dioxide spreads out, reacts with water vapor, and forms sulfate aerosols. These reflect incoming solar radiation and increase the reflectivity of clouds, cooling surface temperatures.

The average global temperature in 1816, according to the UCAR, dropped 3°C. That may sound like a small number, but it had dramatic impacts, especially during the summer months. In the US, heavy snow blanketed parts of New England in June. Frost was reported as far south as Virginia through July. Then in August, after a brief reprieve, severe frost returned to many parts of the northeast. These unseasonable conditions caused widespread crop failures, livestock losses, famine, and disease. Ultimately, it forced many people to migrate west.

Europe suffered similar conditions, but also had excessive rainfall. Crop failures and price inflation for basic goods from Ireland to Germany lead to food riots in many cities. The gloomy weather also famously inspired many British and European writers. Mary Shelly, for example wrote Frankenstein while on vacation at Lake Geneva in Switzerland that summer.

Luckily, this dramatic – albeit natural – climate change was temporary. The aerosols eventually settled out of the atmosphere and sunlight returned. While the process that produced this moment in weather history was essentially the opposite of the runaway green house effect happening today, it is a great example of how sensitive the climate is to changes in atmospheric composition. It also shows how seemingly small changes in global temperature can have huge impacts on our lives.

June 2016: Warmest June on Record for Planet Earth

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Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with June 2016 marking the warmest June ever recorded on this planet.

According to the State of the Climate report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 61.52°F. That is a staggering 1.62°F above the 20th century average and 0.04°F above the former record that was set just last year.

June 2016 also marked the 14th month in a row to break a monthly global temperature record – the longest such streak on NOAA’s books. Moreover, it was the 378th consecutive month with a temperature above the 20th century average. That means the last time any month posted a below average reading was December 1984.

While heat dominated most of the planet this June, some places were particularly warm, including North America. Here in the contiguous US, with a monthly temperature of 71.8°F, which is 3.3°F above average, it was our warmest June on record. The previous record of 71.6°F was set in 1933. Arizona and Utah were each record warm.

These soaring temperatures, scientists say, were driven by the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. While El Niño gave global temperatures a boost earlier in the year, it has since dissipated.

Year to date, the first six months of 2016 were the warmest such period on record. This increases the likelihood that 2016 will surpass 2015 as the Earth’s warmest year ever recorded. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

June 2016 was the hottest June ever recorded. Credit: NOAA

June 2016 was the hottest June ever recorded. Credit: NOAA

2016 is heads and shoulders above the previous record warm years. Credit: NOAA

YTD, 2016 is heads and shoulders above previous record warm years. Credit: NOAA

The Thames Barrier Protects London from Flooding

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The Thames Barrier protects millions of people and billions of dollars worth of property in greater London from flooding. As a New Yorker who experienced Superstorm Sandy and its record storm surge first hand, I made a point to visit this crucial piece of engineering during a recent trip to the UK.

Completed in 1982 at the cost of £535 million (about £1.6 billion today), the barrier was built in response to the catastrophic North Sea Flood of 1953. Often called the worst natural disaster to hit the UK, the floodwaters claimed the lives of 307 people and caused widespread damage estimated at £50 million (£1.2 billion today).

According to the UK Met Office, the deadly flood was caused by the combination of a high spring tide and an intense extra-tropical storm in the North Sea. Together, they generated a storm surge of 18.4 feet above average sea level. Moving upstream during the overnight hours of January 31, 1953, the high water overwhelmed the existing floodwalls and inundated communities along the Thames Estuary with little or no warning.

Situated downstream of central London, the barrier consists of ten individual steel gates that span a section of the river that is 1700 feet wide. It is the second largest movable flood barrier in the world, after the Oosterscheldekering barrier in the Netherlands. The Netherlands were also hard hit by the 1953 storm, with over 1800 lives lost to floodwaters.

When a storm surge or an exceptionally high tide is expected, all of the individual gates of the Thames Barrier are closed creating a solid steel wall, approximately five stories high, across the river. While this protects London from flooding from the sea, the barrier can also be used to help reduce fluvial flooding caused by heavy rainfall. When a high amount of water is forecast to flow downriver, the barrier is closed just after low tide. This creates a volume of space behind the barrier – sort of like a temporary reservoir – for the extra water coming downstream to fill. Without the barrier, the incoming tide would take up this space and cause the river water to rise even higher and spill out of its banks.

To date, according to the UK Environment Agency, the Barrier has been closed 176 times since it became operational 34 years ago. Of these closings, 89 were to protect against tidal flooding and 87 were to help alleviate fluvial flooding.  At the time it was built, it was only expected to be used 2 to 3 times per year.

Looking ahead, as the climate warms, heavy precipitation events in the UK are expected to increase and sea levels will continue to rise. This means the barrier will most likely be called into action even more often.

While there was debate about the feasibility and cost of building the barrier, as there is with any large government project,  it has repeatedly proven itself to have been a worthwhile investment. It is expected to remain a viable flood defense tool through the 2060’s.

The Thames Barrier protects London from flooding. Credit: Melissa Fleming.

The Thames Barrier protects London from flooding. Credit: Melissa Fleming.