Tag Archives: international

The Flood Forecasting Lions of London

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The River Thames is as much a part of London as the buildings and palaces that sit along its banks. During a recent visit to the UK’s capital city, I learned more about this storied river and its long history of flooding.

London is situated along the tideway – the part of the Thames that is subject to tides. As such, it faces a flood threat from exceptionally high tides and powerful storm surges sent up river from the North Sea. Heavy rains that fall west of the city can also send torrents downstream.

Today, the mighty Thames Barrier protects the city against massive deluges, but an older flood warming system is still visible along parts of the river.

These are the bronze lion heads that line both sides of the Thames at Victoria Embankment in central London. Installed in the late 1860’s as part of the Great London Sewage Works project, they are often overlooked today as decorative moorings.

While they do not offer any protection from floods, the lions serve as visual markers for rising water. Basically, if the water level reaches their mouths, the city is at risk of a flood. Or, as the locals like to say, “When the lions drink, London will sink.”

Bronze lion heads line the wall of the River Thames, London.

Bronze lion heads line the wall of the River Thames, London.

La Niña Likely to Develop by the End of Summer

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The latest El Niño event officially ended in early June. But now, according to NOAA, there is a 75% chance that La Niña conditions will develop by the close of this summer.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a natural climate pattern known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or ENSO. A La Niña event is characterized by below average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These cool waters influence the air temperature and affect the position of the jet stream.

In general, La Niña strengthens the polar jet and weakens the sub-tropical jet. This, in turn, affects weather patterns around the globe.

In the US, a La Niña event typically brings the southern states conditions that are warmer and dryer than normal. The northern tier, on the other hand, usually experiences below average temperatures with the northwest and Great Lakes region receiving above average precipitation. These impacts are most apparent during the fall and winter months.

La Niña also tends to reduce the wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This provides favorable conditions for hurricane development.

The last La Niña event occurred in 2010-12.

Typical Winter La Nina jet stream pattern. Credit: Climate.gov

Typical Winter La Nina jet stream pattern. Credit: NOAA

Warmest May and Warmest Spring on Record for Planet Earth

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Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with May 2016 marking the warmest May ever recorded on this planet.

According to the State of the Climate report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 60.17°F. That is 1.57°F above the 20th century average and 0.04°F above the previous record that was set in 2015. Moreover, May marked the 13th consecutive month to break a global temperature record – the longest such streak on NOAA’s books.

The three-month period of March, April, and May – known as meteorological spring in the northern hemisphere – was also a record breaker. NOAA reports that Earth’s average temperature for the season was 1.91°F above the 20th century average of 56.7°F.  That is 0.40°F above the previous record that was set just last year.

While heat dominated most of the planet this spring, some places were particularly warm, including large parts of North America. Here in the US, Alaska marked its warmest spring ever recorded while Washington and Oregon posted their second and third warmest, respectively.

These soaring temperatures, scientists say, were fueled by a combination of El Niño, which has now dissipated, and the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. Research by Climate Central’s World Weather Attribution Program shows that while El Niño gives global temperatures a boost, the majority of the temperature increase is due to rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It should also be noted that no other strong El Niño event has produced temperature anomalies as large as the ones seen recently.

Year to date, the first five months of 2016 were the warmest such period on record. This strengthens the likelihood that 2016 will surpass 2015 as the Earth’s warmest year ever recorded. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

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May 2016 was the warmest May on record, globally. Image credit: NOAA

2016 is on track to being the next warmest year on record. Image credit: NOAA

2016 is well on track to being the next warmest year on record. Image credit: NOAA

If You Don’t Like the Weather in Iceland, Just Wait Five Minutes

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In Iceland, people are fond of saying, “If you don’t like the weather, just wait five minutes.” This popular expression is written on everything from t-shirts to coasters, and during the course of my recent visit I also found it to be true.

The notoriously changeable weather of this island nation is largely the result of its location. Situated just south of the Arctic Circle, Iceland sits at the border between the Arctic Ocean with cold air masses to the north and the Atlantic Ocean with milder air masses to the south. A branch of the warm Gulf Stream Current known as the Irminger Current also flows along the country’s southern and western shores moderating the climate. As this mild air interacts with cold arctic air, it produces frequent changes in the weather. A relatively mild, sunny day can quickly turn cold and rainy. Strong winds are also very common.

So, when in Iceland, heed the advice of the locals and be prepared for all four seasons on any given day.

Coaster for sale with the popular saying, " Welcome to Iceland. If you don't like the weather, just wait five minutes." Credit/Source: Gullfoss.is

Coaster for sale with the popular saying, “Welcome to Iceland. If you don’t like the weather, just wait five minutes.” Credit/Source: Gullfoss.is

April 2016: Warmest April on Record for Planet Earth

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Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with April 2016 marking the warmest April ever recorded on this planet.

According to the State of the Climate report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 58.68°F. That is a staggering 1.98°F above the 20th century average and 0.5°F above the former record that was set in 2010. This temperature was also the fourth highest departure from average for any month on record, behind March 2016, February 2016, and December 2015. Moreover, April marked the 12th month in a row to break a monthly global temperature record – the longest such streak on NOAA’s books.

While heat dominated most of the planet last month, some places were particularly warm, including large parts of the Arctic and Southeast Asia. Here in the US, Alaska marked its warmest April ever recorded and Idaho, Oregon, and Washington each posted their second warmest on record.

These soaring temperatures, scientists say, were fueled by a combination of El Niño, which is now fading, and the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. Research by Climate Central’s World Weather Attribution Program shows that while El Niño gives global temperatures a boost, the majority of the temperature increase is due to rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It should also be noted that no other strong El Niño event has produced temperature anomalies as large as the ones seen recently.

Year to date, the first four months of 2016 were the warmest such period on record. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

April 2016 was the 12th consecutive month to break a monthly global temperature record. Credit: NOAA

April 2016 was the 12th consecutive month to break a monthly global temperature record. Credit: NOAA

Massive Wildfire Burns in Western Canada

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A massive wildfire is raging in Alberta, Canada. Situated in the heart of that country’s oil-sands region, it is known as the Fort McMurray Fire.

Charring 772 square miles of parched land since it started on May 1st, it is now one of the worst wildfires the area has ever seen. As of Sunday, according to local officials, more than 1,600 structures have been destroyed and more than 88,000 people have been forced to evacuate.

Only a few days after it began, the fire became so large and intense that it started producing its own weather, including pyrocumulus clouds and lightning.

While the exact cause of the fire remains under investigation, unusually warm temperatures, low humidity, and high winds have been helping to fuel the blaze. But, like many other weather-related events this year, El Niño also played a role. It brought the region a dry autumn and winter followed by a warm spring, which created tinderbox conditions that just needed a spark.

This wildfire, according to the Alberta Emergency Management Agency, is still burning and is expected to take months to fully contain.

The Fort McMurray Wildfire rages in Alberta, Canada. Credit: The Star and CP

The Fort McMurray Wildfire rages in Alberta, Canada.  Credit: The Star/ CP

The Paris Climate Change Agreement is Signed at UN on Earth Day

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On this Earth Day, government officials from around the globe are gathered at the UN headquarters in New York City to sign the historic climate change deal that was hammered out in Paris last December. This signing ceremony is one of several steps needed to put the global accord into effect.

Known as the Paris Agreement, the deal aims to limit global warming to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, countries submitted individual five-year plans called “intended nationally determined contributions” or INDCs. They essentially spell out how much CO2 a country plans to cut based on its own political and economic situation. Under the current collection of national plans, however, the Paris Agreement will only cut greenhouse gas emissions by about half of what is necessary to reach the 2°C (3.6°F) goal. That said, the agreement does legally obligate countries to reconvene every five years to present updated plans detailing how they will deepen their emissions cuts.

The next step in the UN process requires participating countries to formally pledge that they will adopt the agreement within their own legal systems. The final step – known as “entering into force” – will happen when at least 55 countries, which together represent at least 55% of global emissions, adopt the agreement domestically. This last part is likely to take a few years.

A today’s ceremony, 155 countries are expected to sign the agreement.  This will set a new record for the number of signatories on an international accord. The previous record was held by the 1982 Montego Bay Law of the Sea agreement, which had 119 signatories.

Credit: UN

Credit: UN

Earth Day 2016

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Everyday is Earth Day, as the saying goes. But, today marks the official celebration.

The first Earth Day – spearheaded by Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin – was held on April 22,1970.  An estimated 20 million people attended rallies across the US to protest against rampant industrial pollution and the deterioration of the nation’s natural environment. Raising public awareness and shifting the political tide, these events helped put environmental issues on the national agenda. They led to the creation of the EPA and the passage of the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, and the Endangered Species Act.

Forty-six years after the original, Earth Day celebrations are now held in nearly 200 countries. This year, the date is more significant than ever as hundreds of government officials from around the world gathered at the UN to sign the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

Image Credit: William Anders/NASA

“Earth Rise” from 1968 highlighted how fragile and unique the Earth really is.                              Credit: William Anders/NASA

March 2016: Warmest March on Record for Planet Earth

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Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with March 2016 marking the warmest March ever recorded on this planet.

According to the State of the Climate report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 57.1°F. That is a staggering 2.20°F above the 20th century average and 0.54°F above the former record that was set last year. This temperature was also the highest departure from average for any month on record, surpassing the previous record that was set just last month.  Moreover, March 2016 marked the 11th month in a row to break a monthly global temperature record.

While heat dominated most of the planet, some places were particularly warm, including much of North America and Scandinavia. Here in the contiguous US, it was our 4th warmest March on record.

These soaring temperatures, scientists say, were fueled by a combination of El Niño, which is now fading, and the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. Research by Climate Central’s World Weather Attribution Program shows that while El Niño gives global temperatures a boost, the majority of the temperature increase is due to rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It should also be noted that no other strong El Niño event has produced temperature anomalies as large as the ones seen recently.

Year to date, the first three months of 2016 were the warmest such period on record. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

march 2016 was the 11th consecutive month to break a monthly temperature record. Credit: NOAA

March 2016 was the 11th consecutive month to break a monthly global temperature record.  Credit: NOAA

Warmest February and Warmest Winter on Record for Planet Earth

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Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with February 2016 marking the warmest February on record and closing out the warmest meteorological winter ever recorded for the entire planet.

According to the State of the Climate report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for February – over both land and sea surfaces – was 56.08°F, which is a staggering 2.18°F above the 20th century average. This marks the highest departure from average for any month on record, surpassing the previous record set just two months ago in December 2015 by 0.16°F.  February 2016 was also the 10th month is a row to break a monthly temperature record.

The three-month period of December, January, and February – known as meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere – was also a record breaker. NOAA reports that Earth’s average temperature for the season was 2.03°F above the 20th century average.  That is 0.52°F above the previous record that was set last year.

While heat dominated most of the planet this winter, some places were particularly warm, including much of North America and Europe. Here in the contiguous US, it was our warmest winter on record.

These soaring temperatures, scientists say, were fueled by a combination of the current El Niño – a natural periodic climate phenomenon in the Pacific that boosts global temperatures – and the long-term trend of human-caused climate change. While not to discount the strong influence El Niño has on the climate, it should be noted that no other El Niño event of comparable strength has produced temperature anomalies as large as the ones seen recently. Also, it is important to remember that fifteen of the sixteen warmest years on record have occurred this century and they were not all El Niño years.

Year to date, the first two months of 2016 were the warmest such period on record. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

Credit: NOAA

February 2016. Credit: NOAA

Winter 2015-2016. Credit: NOAA

Winter 2015-2016. Credit: NOAA