Tag Archives: national

2015 Wildfire Season on Track to Record Levels in US

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Summer is wildfire season in the American West, and it is off to a raging start.

So far this year, according to the National Interagency Fire Center, wildfires have burned 5.5 million acres across the US. That is an area roughly the size of the state of New Jersey. It is also the second highest total (as of this date) in the last 25 years.

As of Monday, 22 large wildfires – defined as greater than 100 acres – are burning in 5 states.  In California’s Napa Valley region, the Wragg Fire has scorched 7,000 acres and forced many residents to evacuate. In Montana, a massive blaze has burned approximately 5 square miles of Glacier National Park since it began last week. The majority of the acres burned, however, have been in Alaska. They have seen nearly 4.7 million acres charred, which is about 85% of the national total to date.

High temperatures and prolonged drought in the West have turned forests and brush areas into tinderboxes that are susceptible to any type of spark. While summer is usually hot and dry in California, the state is enduring its fourth year of drought. Alaska has also been unusually warm and dry. In fact, according to NOAA, they are in the middle of their second warmest year on record, year to date. These warm temperatures helped produce a dearth of winter snowfall, which has lead to drier than normal conditions across a large area of the state.

Overall, wildfires in the US seem to be getting worse. In Alaska, 3 of the worst wildfires have occurred in the last 12 years. In California, 12 of their 20 largest fires have taken place since 2000. In both states, wildfire records date back to the 1930s.

Nationally, summer 2015 is on track to be one of the worst wildfires seasons on record.

Credit: CBS

Wildfire rages in Glacier National Park, Montana. Image Credit: CBS

Drought Update: Summer 2015

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This summer has been marked by heavy rain and even flooding in many parts of the United States.  Drought, however, continues to plague large sections of the country.

According to the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, 36% of the nation is in some form of drought. While this number represents improvement for some areas, such as Texas and the southern plains, the western states remain very dry. Conditions of moderate drought or worse cover 61% of that region.

In California, despite some unseasonably heavy rain recently, the long-term drought – now in its fourth year – continues. 97% of the state is experiencing conditions of moderate drought or worse and 46% is in extreme drought, the worst possible category.

On the other side of the country, drought is also impacting parts of Florida.  This is fairly unusual as summer is considered the rainy season there. Currently, 45% of the Sunshine state – mostly along the east coast – is experiencing some form of drought. That is up from 15% from just three months ago. Portions of the highly populated areas of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties, on the southeastern tip of the peninsula, are dealing with extreme drought.

The Drought Monitor is a weekly publication produced by a partnership of government agencies, including the National Drought Mitigation Center, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

20150721_west_trd 20150721_FL_trd

Tropical Storm Bill Slams Texas

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Tropical Storm Bill, the second named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, made landfall on Tuesday at Matagorda Island, which is between Houston and Corpus Christi in Texas. It slammed the southeast section of the Lone Star state with winds measured up to 60 mph and relentless heavy rain.

Rainfall totals, according to the NWS, averaged around 3 inches for most places, but some areas southwest of Houston saw much heavier precipitation. The cities of Ganado and El Campo received 11.77 inches and 9.91 inches, respectively. With the soil already saturated from a record wet May, there was widespread flash flooding. Luckily, no serious injures have been reported.

Moving inland toward Oklahoma, another state that experienced a record wet May, the storm was downgraded to a tropical depression on Wednesday. The rain, nonetheless, is ongoing. Looking ahead, the storm is forecast to travel northeast, riding a large ridge of high pressure situated over the southeastern states. The rainy remnants of Bill will likely arrive here in the NYC area by Sunday.

Given that this is an El Niño year – a time when the number of Atlantic hurricanes is usually below average – it is interesting to note that two named storms have already made landfall in the US this season. First Ana in May and now Bill. This shows that land-falling storms can occur even in “quiet” years and that it is important to be prepared throughout the hurricane season. 

Tropical Storm Bill making landfall on Texas coast. Credit: NOAA

Tropical Storm Bill making landfall on Texas coast. Credit: NOAA

Remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are forecast to impact the east coast by the weekend. Credit: NOAA

Traveling from the Gulf of Mexico across the mid-west, remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are forecast to impact the east coast by the weekend. Credit: NOAA

May 2015: Wettest Month Ever Recorded in US

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When it rains, it pours – this old adage was literally proven to be true last month. With national weather data dating back to 1895, May 2015 was the wettest month ever recorded in the contiguous United States.

According to NOAA, an average of 4.36 inches of rain fell across the lower 48 states, which is 1.45 inches above average. The vast majority of this impressive total came down in the southern plains. Colorado experienced its wettest May on record. Texas and Oklahoma each had their single wettest month ever, with rain totals that were more than twice their respective long-term averages.

For people living on the either the west or east coasts of the country, this news may come as a bit of a surprise. California continues to be plagued by a devastating drought and many states along the eastern seaboard saw drier than average conditions for the month with six states recording a top-ten driest May.

While the torrential rain in the south central US caused deadly and destructive flooding this spring, it also abruptly ended the region’s multi-year drought. Nationally, the latest report from the US drought monitor shows that only 24.6% of the country is in some form of drought. That is down from 37.4% at the end of April. It is also the smallest national drought footprint since February 2011.

There were many factors that contributed to May’s excessive rainfall, including El Nino – a natural oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon that tends to bring wet weather to the southern part of the country. However, the National Climate Assessment, a US government report that came out last year, says that climate change has caused heavy rain events to become heavier and more frequent across most of the US. Experts expect this trend to continue, but as we saw last month the distribution of rainfall is not likely to be equal.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

When it Rains, it Pours

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Torrential rain events and the flooding they cause are nothing new.  Global warming, however, is helping to make them more likely.

According to the most recent National Climate Assessment, heavy rain events – defined as the heaviest 1% of all rain events – have become heavier and more frequent across most of the US. The greatest increases have been observed in the northeast, mid-west, and southeast.

Climate scientists attribute this increase in heavy precipitation to our warming atmosphere. Simply put, warm air holds more moisture than cold air. And, the more moisture that builds up in the air, the more rain can fall.

The relentless rain and deadly floods in Texas last month made national headlines, but there are many other examples of similar events in the recent past. In September 2013, Colorado experienced catastrophic flooding caused by overwhelming amounts of rain in a short period of time. Locally, here in the NYC area, the town of Islip on Long Island saw more than 13 inches of rainfall in a single day last August. That equates to 29% of their average annual rainfall. The damage caused by that single event was estimated at $35 million.

As our global temperature continues to rise, experts say we should expect to see more extreme rain events, even in areas where overall precipitation is projected to decrease. In other words, when it rains, it will likely pour.

The map shows percent increases in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012 for each region of the continental United States. These trends are larger than natural variations for the Northeast, Midwest, Puerto Rico, Southeast, Great Plains, and Alaska. The trends are not larger than natural variations for the Southwest, Hawai‘i, and the Northwest. The changes shown in this figure are calculated from the beginning and end points of the trends for 1958 to 2012.

The map shows percent increases in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events  from 1958 to 2012 for each region of the continental United States. These trends are larger than natural variations for the Northeast, Midwest, Puerto Rico, Southeast, Great Plains, and Alaska. The trends are not larger than natural variations for the Southwest, Hawai‘i, and the Northwest. Credit: 2014 US National Climate Assessment

Names for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Today is the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. While the number of storms expected to develop this year is low, their names have already been chosen.

Since 1950, each Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane has had a unique name.  They come from a set of six rotating lists produced by the World Meteorological Organization. A name is retired only when a storm was particularly noteworthy – causing a large number of fatalities or an extraordinary amount of damage. Some retired Atlantic Basin names include: Andrew, Katrina, and Sandy.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th. The names for this year’s storms are below.

2015 Atlantic Storm Names

AnaHenriOdette
BillIdaPeter
ClaudetteJoaquinRose
DannyKateSam
ErikaLarryTeresa
FredMindyVictor
GraceNicholasWanda

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

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From year to year, the number and strength of storms that develop during the Atlantic hurricane season varies. This year, despite the pre-season arrival of Tropical Storm Ana, NOAA is forecasting a 70% chance of a below average season.

Tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes in the United States, develop around the globe at different times of the year. In this country, we are most affected by the Atlantic hurricane season, which impacts the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. It runs from June 1 through November 30.

The main driver behind this season’s mild forecast is the presence of El Niño in the tropical Pacific. This naturally occurring oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon is known to impact weather around the planet. According to NOAA, “El Niño can strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.”

While the overall number of storms expected to develop this year is low, it is important to remember that it only takes one land-falling system to cause serious damage.

Data Source: NOAA

Data Source: NOAA

Catastrophic Flooding in Texas

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Relentless rain unleashed catastrophic floods across southeast Texas this past weekend. Coming out of a prolonged drought, officials say this was the worst flooding the region has seen in years.

In Houston, more than 10 inches of rain fell Monday night into Tuesday morning. With the ground already saturated from plentiful spring rains, rivers and bayous swelled out of their banks.  The floodwaters inundated homes, businesses, and major roadways, paralyzing large parts of this country’s 4th largest city.  Rainfall rates reached as high as 4 inches per hour, which prompted the NWS to issue a flash flood emergency – the highest level of flood alert – for the area.  Local officials say 3 people were killed and more than 80,000 people lost power as a result of the flood.

On Sunday, torrential rain in Hays County, TX caused the Blanco River to rise more than 30 feet in 3 hours. Before the river gauge was washed away, it reported a crest of 40.21 feet, which is about 7 feet above the previous record set in 1929. Officials there say the raging water destroyed more than 350 homes and that 13 people are still missing.

Just north of Texas, the Oklahoma City area also experienced severe weather and flooding this holiday weekend. Across both states, floodwaters caused a number of fatalities. The combined death toll currently stands at 14, but is expected to rise.

The intensity of these rain events had two main drivers. First, a mass of warm and deeply saturated air moved north from the Gulf of Mexico.  It then ran into a deep dip in the jet stream, which has been locked in place over the western states recently. This collision triggered intense thunderstorms that wrung tremendous amounts of moisture out of the air.  The result was a series of deadly and destructive deluges across the region.

The Governor of Texas, Greg Abbot, has declared 37 counties from the Red River to the Rio Grande to be disaster areas as a result of recent weather events.  More rain, unfortunately, is forecast for the region this week.

Flooded roadway in Houston. Credit: KTRK

Flooded roadway in Houston. Credit: KTRK

Drought Update: Spring 2015

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Drought has plagued the western and southwestern regions of the US for years, with the highly populous states of Texas and California being particularly hard hit. In recent weeks, however, plentiful spring rain has brought the Lone Star state some much needed, if not complete, relief.

According to the latest report from the US Drought Monitor, exceptional drought, the worst possible category is no longer present in Texas. This is the first time this has happened since July 2012. While this is good news, other categories of drought still persist across 36% of the massive state. The intense rain has also caused flooding.

California, in its fourth year of drought, also received some much-needed rainfall recently. On Thursday, San Diego received 1.63 inches of rain making it their wettest May since 1921. This impressive daily total was not only unusual as the region is now in its “dry season”, but was also more than that city typically gets all summer. Despite this recent rain in the southern part of the state, 98% of California remains in some form of drought with nearly 50% in exceptional drought.

The Drought Monitor is a weekly publication produced by a partnership of government agencies, including the National Drought Mitigation Center, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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An App to Visualize the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in South Florida

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Sea level rise is one of the most pressing aspects of climate change for coastal communities around the globe.  Here in the US, South Florida is especially vulnerable. Raising awareness of this issue, a team of professors and students at Florida International University (FIU) have created a web app called the Sea Level Rise Toolbox.

Utilizing elevation data from Google and sea level rise calculations made by FIU scientists, the app visualizes the potential impacts of a 0 to 6 foot rise in sea level for neighborhoods across Miami-Dade County. The goal of the app, according to Susan Jacobson, an assistant professor at FIU and the web app project manager, “is to inform residents of South Florida about the potential impact of sea level rise where they live.”

This eye-opening app is free and easy to use. Check it out at:http://eyesontherise.org/app

Sea Level Rise Toolbox. Credit: FIU.

Sea Level Rise Toolbox. Credit: FIU.