Tag Archives: national

The Chances for a White Christmas

Posted on by

The holidays are here and many people are dreaming of a white Christmas.  The likelihood of seeing those dreams come true, however, are largely dependent on where you live.

According to NOAA, a white Christmas is defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th.  In the US, the climatological probability of having snow for Christmas is greatest across the northern tier of the country. Moving south, average temperatures increase and the chance of snow steadily decreases.

Here in New York City, the odds of having snow on Christmas Day are, on average, less than twenty-five percent. This low probability is largely due to the city’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and its moderating influence. This year, despite some significant snowfall earlier in the month and the possibility of a light snow shower tonight, NYC is not expecting a white Christmas.

Snow or no snow, the Weather Gamut wishes you a very Happy Holiday!

Image Credit: NOAA

Image Credit: NOAA

Late Fall Tornado Outbreak in the Midwest

Posted on by

Severe weather, including a massive series of tornadoes, roared across the American Midwest on Sunday.  These powerful storms caused widespread damage and knocked out power to tens of thousands of people.  Numerous injuries and at least eight fatalities have been reported so far.

NWS survey teams are currently on the ground evaluating the damage, but early reports estimate that several dozen twisters touched down across seven states. The two strongest have been preliminarily rated EF-4, the second highest ranking on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.  With winds raging between 166 and 200 mph, they devastated the towns of Washington and New Minden, both in Illinois.  Officials say these were the strongest and deadliest November tornadoes on record in the state.

This historic outbreak was the result of an explosive mix of atmospheric conditions, including instability generated by the collision of a cold front with warm, moist air moving up from the south.  In addition, the combination of a powerful jet stream aloft and a strong area of low pressure near the ground – with winds blowing in the opposite direction – helped generate spin in the atmosphere.

While autumn, the so-called second season for tornadoes, has been known to produce severe storms, they usually occur in the warmer climates of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Twisters further north, especially powerful ones, are very rare for this time of year.

Damage from tornadoes near washington, IL

Damage from tornadoes near Washington, IL                                                                                     Image Credit: A. Koury

NOAA

Image Credit: NOAA

 

A Week of Wild Weather Across the U.S.

Posted on by

Extreme weather battered much of the United States this past week.  From heavy snow and tornadoes in the plains to a tropical storm in the Gulf and blustery Santa Ana winds in California, this country saw it all in just six days.

Starting on Tuesday, a pre-season winter storm dumped massive amounts of snow across Wyoming and South Dakota. Some places, like Deadwood, SD received as much as 48 inches.

On Wednesday, the NWS named Tropical Storm Karen. Moving north across the Gulf of Mexico, it threatened coastal communities from Louisiana to Florida with heavy rain and storm surge flooding.  Luckily, however, the storm was downgraded to a rainstorm by the time it came ashore.

By Friday, the cold air that produced the blizzard in the northern plains collided with warm moist air to the east and unleashed severe thunderstorms across the region.  They, in turn, spawned numerous tornadoes.  One of the hardest hit areas was Wayne, NE where an EF-4 twister with winds measured up to 170-mph tore through the town.  While widespread property damage and numerous injuries were reported, there were no fatalities.

Over the weekend, powerful Santa Ana winds blasted southern California with gusts reaching 90-mph in some areas.  These warm, dry winds helped fuel a large wildfire in San Diego County.

While extreme weather events are not unusual in this country, having such a large number and wide variety happen more-or-less at once is very rare.

Colorado Flood Disaster

Posted on by

Relentless rain unleashed catastrophic flooding across Colorado’s Front Range this past week. While flash floods are not uncommon in the area, officials say the magnitude and duration of this event makes it one of the worst disasters in the state’s history.

According to meteorologists, the cause of this widespread and destructive flooding was a stalled low-pressure system that funneled moisture into the region from both the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean.  Forced upward by the local topography – the Rocky Mountains – this moist air condensed into rain clouds. Without upper level winds to move the system along, rain just kept falling locally. In Boulder County, one of the hardest hit areas, 18 inches of rain fell in one week.  They normally receive 20 inches for the entire year.

Impacting seventeen counties across the state, raging floodwaters turned roads into rivers obliterating thousands of homes and claiming the lives of at least eight people.  Local officials say hundreds of miles of roadways and dozens of bridges were damaged or destroyed.  This has left anyone living in small mountain towns stranded and cut off from basic services like power, communications, and clean water.

This devastating deluge follows a summer marked by drought and wildfires across the state.

Extreme Weather Impacts the National Flood Insurance Program

Posted on by

Hurricanes and floods are nothing new in the United States.  In the last decade, however, this country has seen a significant increase in these types of extreme weather events.  In response to the financial strain they have put on the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Insurance Reform Act of 2012 (BW-12).

The NFIP, operated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), offers insurance for individual businesses and homeowners in flood prone areas. Congress created this program in 1968 in response to the financial chaos caused by Hurricane Betsy in 1965. This storm, which devastated the Gulf Coast, was the first billion-dollar natural disaster in U.S. history.

To calculate flood risk and the corresponding insurance rates for properties, the NFIP uses special maps that indicate flood zones.  Many of these flood insurance rate maps, however, have not been updated in decades and do not reflect the current flood risk associated with our changing environment.  As a result, many policyholders have been paying below market rates.

The Biggert-Waters Insurance Reform Act re-authorizes the NFIP for five years, but requires a number of changes.  These include, the gradual phasing out of subsidized policies and moving the program toward risk-based rates as new flood insurance rate maps become available.  Subsidized policyholders will see a rate increase of 25% per year until their premiums reflect the actual risk of their location. Non-primary residences, non-residential properties, and repetitive loss properties will be among the first to see these changes.

BW-12 was signed into law a few months before Super-storm Sandy devastated coastal communities throughout the northeast.  Many people whose homes were damaged or destroyed by Sandy’s record storm surge are now beginning to feel the effects of this new policy.

Drought Update: Summer 2013

Posted on by

This summer has been marked by heavy rain and even flooding in many parts of the United States.  Long-term drought, however, continues to plague a large section of this country.

According to the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, 45% of this nation is in some form of drought. While this number represents improvement for some areas, such as the east and mid-west, the western states remain dry. Conditions of moderate drought or worse cover 77% of that region with 19% suffering under extreme drought.  These numbers are up from this time last year.

As the drought intensifies in the west, it is helping to fuel the region’s numerous wildfires.

droughtImage Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor

Weather History: Death Valley Heat Record

Posted on by

One hundred years ago today, the temperature at California’s Furnace Creek in Death Valley National Park soared to 134°F.  To this day, that is the highest air temperature ever recorded on Earth.

Situated in the Mojave Desert and 282 feet below sea level, Death Valley is the lowest and driest place in the United States.  Its unique geography traps hot desert air and helps to heat it even further.  While the area does have seasons, summer is extremely hot.  From June through August, daytime highs in the triple digits and over-night lows in the 90s are not uncommon.

The heat wave that gripped the southwestern U.S. last month had some people thinking the Death Valley record might be broken, especially when the temperature reached 129°F on June 30th.  While this set a new monthly record for June, the century old world record still stands.

Death Valley, CA

Death Valley, CA

Image Credit: NPS

Record Large Dead Zone is Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Posted on by

Heavy spring rains across the American mid-west have mitigated the region’s extensive drought.  However, they are expected to cause a record large dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico this summer.

According to a recently released forecast from NOAA and its research partners, the University of Michigan and Louisiana State University, the Gulf dead zone this year could grow as large as 8,561 square miles. If it reaches this size, which is roughly equal to the state of New Jersey, it will be the largest dead zone ever recorded in the Gulf.

Dead zones are areas in large bodies of water that do not have enough oxygen to sustain aquatic life.  They are usually caused by nutrient pollution from agricultural run-off.  Specifically, excessive amounts of fertilizers – nitrogen and phosphorus – create massive algae blooms.  When the algae die, they sink to the bottom where they are decomposed by bacteria. This process uses up most, if not all, of the available oxygen in the water.  As a result, fish flee the area and immobile bottom dwelling organisms, like clams, die.

The Midwest is this nation’s agricultural breadbasket and its farmers use fertilizers to help grow an enormous amount of crops.  It is also the watershed of the Mississippi River.  As such, the flooding rains that swept through the area this spring have significantly increased the nutrient load of the water that is flowing into the Gulf of Mexico.

A large dead zone will likely have serious economic ramifications for the Gulf region’s multi-million dollar fishing industry.

Agricultural run-off is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus that cause the annual Gulf of Mexico dead zone.

Watershed of the Mississippi River runs through America’s agricultural heartland and ultimately drains into the Gulf of Mexico.

Image Credit: Donald Scavia/University of Michigan

President Obama’s Climate Change Plan

Posted on by

The Obama Administration is tackling climate change.  In a speech delivered at Georgetown University yesterday – outdoors in sweltering 90°F heat – the President outlined his plan to combat this pressing issue.

The three key points of his strategy are: cutting carbon pollution in America, preparing the U.S. for the impacts of climate change, and leading international efforts to cut global emissions.  While highlighting a number of measures in each category, one of the most significant aspects of this plan is to cut carbon dioxide emissions from both new and existing power plants. Coal-fired power plants are responsible for one-third of this country’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Emphasizing the need to act quickly, these measures will be put in place by executive order and not Congress. The President stated, “Americans across the country are already paying the price of inaction” and he would not tolerate politicized attempts to cast doubt on the scientific consensus of climate change.  Putting it bluntly, he said, “We don’t have time for a meeting of the flat earth society.”

Record Heat in Alaska

Posted on by

Extreme heat is baking Alaska. In fact, some parts of this subarctic state were as warm or warmer than Miami, FL this week.

According the National Weather Service, the temperature in Talkeetna, AK reached a sweltering 96°F on Monday, smashing the previous record of 91°F set in 1969. Cordova and Valdez, each reported readings of 90°F.  In Anchorage, the mercury only made it to 81°F on Tuesday, but it was still enough to break a daily record that was in place since 1926. The average high for this time of year in south-central Alaska is in the mid-60s.

This unusual heat was the result of a strong ridge of high-pressure locked in place over the region for the past few days.  These soaring temperatures, however, are not likely to last much longer.  Forecasters expect conditions to cool down by the end of the week.