Tag Archives: snow

First Major Winter Storm of 2015 in NYC

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A major winter storm blasted a large area of the eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Heavy snow and high winds impacted states from the Mid-Atlantic to New England.

Here in New York City, the storm dumped 9.8 inches of snow in Central Park. While that is a substantial amount, it is a far cry from the record-breaking numbers and blizzard conditions that were forecast. In response to this forecast bust, the NWS said, “The science of forecasting storms, while continually improving, still can be subject to error, especially if we’re on the edge of the heavy precipitation shield. Efforts, including research, are already underway to more easily communicate that forecast uncertainty.”

Starting out as a weak area of low pressure, this storm quickly intensified when it interacted with the jet stream and transformed into a massive nor’easter. It tracked further east than expected and that change in distance to the coast made a big difference in where the heaviest snow fell. On Long Island, only a few miles east of NYC, communities dealt with blizzard conditions and over 20 inches of snow.

While not one for the record books in the Big Apple, this storm ended the so-called snow drought in the northeast and brought enough snow for a fun day of sledding in parks across the city.

Weather History: NYC’s Biggest Snowstorms

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A blizzard warning is currently in effect for New York City. The storm is expected to be our biggest snowmaker of the season to date. It could also possibly be one for the record books.

Here is a look at the top ten snowstorms in New York City history.

Source: NOAA

All measurements are from Central Park in NYC. Source: NWS.

What is a Blizzard?

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A blizzard is expected to blast the northeastern United States over the next two days. Different than a typical winter storm, a blizzard is characterized more by its winds than the amount of snow it produces.

According to the National Weather Service, a blizzard means the following conditions prevail for three hours or longer:

  • Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35mph or higher, and
  • Considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to ¼ mile or less.

These conditions heighten the risk for power outages and often produce whiteout conditions on roadways, making travel extremely dangerous.

The Chances for a White Christmas 2014

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The Holiday Season is here and many people are dreaming of a white Christmas. The likelihood of seeing those dreams come true, however, are largely dependent on where you live.

According to NOAA, a white Christmas is defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th.  In the US, the climatological probability of having snow for Christmas is greatest across the northern tier of the country. Moving south, average temperatures increase and the chance of snow steadily decreases.

Here in New York City, the historical chance of having a white Christmas is about 12%. This low probability is largely due to the city’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and its moderating influence on temperature. This year, with rain and unseasonably warm temperatures in the forecast, the city’s already minimal chance for snow has largely melted away.

Snow or no snow, The Weather Gamut wishes you and your family a very Happy Holiday!

Source: NOAA

Data based on the latest (1981-2010) U.S. Climate Normals from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. Source: NOAA

NYC Monthly Summary: November 2014

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November 2014 was another rollercoaster of a month in New York City in terms of weather. We had highs ranging from a relatively balmy 69°F to a chilly 36°F. In the end though, with 17 out of 30 days posting below average readings, the cold won out. The extended cold snaps helped lower the city’s mean temperature to 45.3°F, which is 2.7°F below normal.

Precipitation this November was fairly abundant. NYC received 4.51 inches of rain, which is 0.49 inches above average. Most of this fell during two significant rain events that each produced more than an inch of rain in 24-hours. The city also saw its first measurable snowfall of the season with 0.2 inches accumulating in Central Park. Nonetheless, following a parched August and September, the city is still listed as “abnormally dry” on the latest report from the US Drought Monitor.

Temps_Nov

Rain-Nov

Lake-Effect Snow

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A relentless snowstorm buried the Buffalo area of western New York State with more than 5 feet of snow this week. Situated on the shore of Lake Erie, the impressive accumulation was the product of a meteorological phenomenon known as “Lake-Effect Snow.”

Lake-effect snowstorms, according to NOAA, develop when cold air blows across the warmer waters of a large unfrozen lake. The bottom layer of the air mass is warmed by the water and allows it to evaporate moisture, which forms clouds. When the air mass reaches the leeward side of the lake its temperature drops again, because the land is cooler than the water. This releases the water vapor as precipitation and enormous amounts of snow can accumulate. The effect is enhanced if the air is lifted upward by local topography.

With the clouds typically forming in bands, the snowfall is highly localized. Some places can see the snow come down at a rate of more than 5 inches per hour, while others will only get a dusting. The shape of the lake and the prevailing wind direction determines the size and orientation of these bands.

Fetch, the distance wind travels over a body of water, also plays a key role. A fetch of more than 60 miles is needed to produce lake effect snow. In general, the larger the fetch, the greater the amount of precipitation, as more moisture can be picked up by the moving air.

The massive surface area of the Great Lakes in the northern United States make them excellent producers of lake-effect snow. With northwesterly winds prevailing in the region, communities along the southeastern shores of the lakes are often referred to as being in the “Snowbelt.”

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

A Winter Preview in NYC

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The official start of winter is more than a month away, but New York City is experiencing an early preview.

A deep dip in the jet stream has ushered in cold arctic air and sent local temperatures plummeting. After reaching an unseasonably warm high of 65°F on Wednesday, the high in Central Park today was only 42°F. That is a difference of 23°F in just 48 hours. The city’s normal high for this time of year is 54°F.

The cold air also helped produce the city’s first snowflakes of the season. While nothing accumulated on the ground, the National Weather Service reported a trace of snow in Central Park early Friday morning. A trace of snow is defined as less than 0.1 inches.

Unlike earlier cold snaps this season, these current chilly conditions are expected to linger for at least a week.

April Snow for NYC

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Spring sprung in New York City this weekend, but winter weather came fighting back overnight.  Following multiple days with temperatures in the mid-70s, many New Yorkers were surprised to find a light coating of snow on cars and sidewalks this morning.

The dramatic cool down – caused by a large mass of cold air moving in from Canada – was accompanied by rain that turned into a wintry mix overnight.  With the temperature plummeting into the 30’s, the NWS issued a freeze warning for the city and surrounding area.

Snow in April is not unheard of in the Big Apple.  On average the month brings us 0.6 inches.  That said, as the month progresses, the chance of snow decreases.  The latest measurable snowfall on record for NYC is April 25, 1875 when 3 inches accumulated in Central Park.

7th Snowiest Winter in NYC

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The winter of 2013-14 brought an exceptional amount of snowfall to New York City. In fact, it was one of our top ten snowiest.

Looking back, every month this winter, with the exception of March, was an overachiever in terms of snowfall.  December brought the city 8.6 inches, January produced 19.7 inches, and February delivered an impressive 29 inches.

With a grand total of 57.4 inches of snow in Central Park, this winter was the Big Apple’s 7th snowiest on record. New York City, according to the NWS, normally gets 25.1 inches for the entire season.

In terms of temperature, NYC was cold this winter, but not in record territory.  Despite numerous arctic outbreaks and the popularization of the term polar vortex, the city’s average temperature this winter season (December, January, and February) was 33°F.  That is only 2°F below normal.

Chart Credit: The Weather Gamut

Chart Credit: The Weather Gamut

NYC Monthly Summary: February 2014

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February is generally the snowiest month on the calendar for New York City, and this year it was extreme.  With 29 inches of snow accumulating in Central Park, it was the city’s second snowiest February on record.  First place belongs to February 2010, with 36.9 inches.  On average, we typically get 8.8 inches of snow for the entire month.

Rainfall was also abundant in NYC this February. We received 5.48 inches, which is 2.39 inches above average.

In terms of temperature, the Big Apple was unusually cold. Overall, we had 11 days where our high temperature did not get above freezing.  While we also had a few unseasonably warm days, the extended periods of extreme cold brought the city’s average monthly temperature down to 31.7°F.  That is 3.3°F below normal.

Feb_TempsGraph Credit: The Weather Gamut