Tag Archives: storms

Forecasting the Impacts of Federal Budget Cuts

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The government does not control the weather.  It does, however, exercise significant power over scientists’ ability to produce reliable forecasts.

Sequestration, the current budget crisis plaguing Congress, threatens widespread automatic spending cuts for all federal agencies starting March 1st.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s satellite program is one of many facing disruption. The agency’s current polar-orbiting weather satellite, Suomi NPP, is due to retire in 2016.  Without funding to develop and launch a replacement, there will be a significant decline in the amount of data available for the computer models that are used to forecast the weather.  Simply put, less data means less accurate forecasts.  This will be especially important when meteorologists try to determine the path of future life threatening weather events like hurricanes and blizzards.

The sequestration is also expected to cut billions of dollars in federal aid to the victims of Hurricane Sandy and reduce FEMA’s ability to respond to future natural disasters.

Winter Weather and Climate Change

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Large snowstorms, like the recent northeastern Blizzard, can lead some people to question the existence of global warming. According to scientists, however, these intense snowstorms are actually signs of our changing climate.

Significant snow events require both a deep supply of moisture and freezing temperatures.  The cold temperature part of this equation is a natural part of the winter season, which is itself, a result of the tilt of the Earth’s axis.  Here in the northern hemisphere, winter means our half of the planet is tilted away from the sun and therefore receives the least amount of solar energy all year.

While global warming will not change the tilt of the Earth’s axis, it is affecting the moisture content of our atmosphere. Rising levels of greenhouse gases are warming the air, which in turn, allows it to hold more moisture.  As a result, storms are producing more intense precipitation, including heavier than normal snowfall when given the proper conditions.

As global temperatures rise, scientists say we should expect to see more large storms, but less snow overall in the winter season. The window for typical winter weather is also expected to shrink, as spring-like conditions continue to arrive earlier than in the past.

Blizzard of 2013

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A massive winter storm clobbered the northeastern Unites States overnight.  Snow accumulated from New Jersey to Maine with some areas collecting more than three feet.

This storm was a classic winter nor’easter.  It formed when two weather systems – one with cold air coming in from the west and the other with warm air approaching from the south – merged and moved up the coast.  The deep moisture content of this particular event, however, helped make it an exceptional snow maker. In producing both heavy snowfall and powerful winds, this storm brought travel of all kinds to a standstill across the region and caused widespread power outages.  Some communities also experienced coastal flooding.

In New York City, we received 11.4 inches of snow in Central Park.  While this was a minor accumulation compared to nearby cities and towns, it was the most snow the Big Apple has seen in two years.

The northeastern Blizzard of 2013, as seen from Space

The northeastern Blizzard of 2013, as seen from Space

Image Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

Alberta Clippers

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The winter season can produce a number of different types of storms. Recently, Alberta Clippers have been dominating the forecast in the eastern United States.

An Alberta Clipper is a fast moving winter storm system that originates in the Canadian Rockies, specifically in the province of Alberta.  Once formed, these storms tend to get caught up in the jet stream and travel southeast across the US.  Alberta Clippers, unlike nor’easters, usually do not produce large amounts of snow.  Moving quickly over land, they generally lack significant moisture.  Clippers are, however, known for their strong winds and cold temperatures.

This type of storm system takes its name not only from its place of origin, but also from the clipper ships of the 19th century – the early days of meteorology.  Back then, clippers were the fastest sailing ships of the time.

Clipper

Image Credit: NOAA

End of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season formally comes to a close today.  Contrary to early predictions, it was an extremely active season with nineteen named storms.  As the third consecutive year with that number, 2012 tied the record for the third busiest hurricane season in American history. In spite of all this action, however, only four storms made landfall in the United States: Beryl, Debby, Isaac, and Sandy.

The season, which officially runs from June 1st to November 30th, got off to an early start this year with two storms, Alberto and Beryl, arriving in May.  Another early highlight was Debby.  Forming in June, it was the earliest arrival of any “D” storm in history.  After a lull in July, the season roared back into action with eight storms in August, including Isaac. The most memorable storm of the year, however, was Sandy in late October.  Measuring nearly 1000 miles in diameter, it was the largest hurricane ever recorded.

While none of these landfalling storms were rated higher than category-2 on the Saffir–Simpson scale, their impacts were nonetheless devastating. Claiming the lives of more than three hundred people and causing tens of billions of dollars in damage, this hurricane season will not be forgotten any time soon.

Chart Source: NOAA

Nor’easter

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Hurricane season officially comes to a close later this week. The season for nor’easters, however, has only just begun and typically runs through April.

A nor’easter is an intense type of winter storm that traditionally affects the east coast of the United States from the mid-Atlantic to New England. Given the name, you would think a nor’easter comes from the northeast.  The opposite, however, is true.

These storms develop when a strong area of low pressure to the south moves up the east coast and meets cold air pushing down from Canada. They are infamous for producing powerful winds, heavy rain, snow, and coastal storm surges.  The steady northeasterly wind that blows in from the ocean ahead of these storms is what gives this weather pattern its name.

Mapping Sandy’s Floodwaters in NYC

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Forecasters predicted Sandy would be a serious storm – and it was.  Its storm surge, however, was higher and even more catastrophic than had been anticipated.

The New York Times, earlier this week, published an interactive map of the flooding caused by the super-storm in New York City.  It is an incredibly detailed visualization of how high the floodwaters actually reached in different parts of the city.

AMS Event: Assessing Storm Surge Risk in NYC

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The New York City/Long Island chapter of the American Meteorological Society will be hosting a seminar this Thursday, November 15th, at Columbia University.  Dr Kerry Emanuel, a professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, is scheduled to present a lecture on “Assessing Storm Surge Risk in NYC.”

In light of the catastrophic impact that Super-Storm Sandy’s record high storm surge caused in and around New York City, this timely talk promises to be very informative.

This event is free and open to the public. For more information and directions, please review this announcement –  AMS: Assessing Storm Surge Risk in NYC

Post-Sandy Nor’easter

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A nor’easter blasted the eastern seaboard yesterday from the mid-Atlantic states to New England.  This type of storm is not unusual in the area, but its timing left a lot to be desired.

Arriving only nine days after Super-Storm Sandy devastated the region, this winter storm slammed the area with high winds and heavy, wet snow.  In New York City, 4.7 inches of snow was reported in Central Park – a new daily snowfall record.

The weight of the snow on the region’s already storm damaged trees caused many branches to break and fall.  This, in turn, resulted in even more power outages in communities still struggling to recover from Sandy, adding insult to injury for tens of thousands of people.

The local forecast is calling for a significant warm-up over the next few days, so the snow will not be sticking around for long.

Super-Storm Sandy

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Sandy, the 18th named storm of this Atlantic Hurricane Season, made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ late Monday. Measuring nearly 1000 miles in diameter, the effects of this massive storm were felt up and down the Eastern Seaboard and as far inland as the Great Lakes. The brunt of the storm, however, was focused in the northeast.

According to the National Weather Service, Sandy was a category-1 hurricane that transitioned to a post-tropical storm just prior to coming ashore.  Despite this technical downgrade in status, the storm maintained hurricane force winds and packed a devastating punch.  It toppled trees and produced a record storm surge of 13.88 feet that caused significant property damage, extensive power outages, and a mounting death toll throughout the region. The hardest hit areas include the densely populated shoreline communities of New Jersey and nearby New York City.

Hurricanes in the northeastern United States are not unheard of, but are generally few and far between.  They typically dissipate over the cool waters of the mid-Atlantic and move out to sea.  Sandy, however, was an exceptional event. Energized by unseasonably warm ocean temperatures, this storm traveled north from the Caribbean, parallel to the US coastline. A large area of high pressure over Greenland, however, soon forced it to make a hard left turn. This shift inland put Sandy on track to meet a cold front moving in from the west. Merging together to form a hybrid nor’easter-hurricane, this colossal and catastrophic weather event earned the title, Super-Storm.

The damage caused by Sandy is currently estimated at $50-billion.

Track of Hurricane Sandy

Image Credit: NOAA

View of Hurricane Sandy from Space

Image Credit: NASA