The Folklore Behind Groundhog Day

Today is Groundhog Day, the midpoint of the winter season.

On this day, according to folklore, the weather conditions for the second half of winter can be predicted by the behavior of a prognosticating groundhog. If the groundhog sees its shadow after emerging from its burrow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If it does not see its shadow, then spring will arrive early.

The practice of using animal behavior to predict future weather conditions goes back to ancient times. The particular custom that we are familiar with in the United States grew out of the old world tradition of Candlemas that German settlers brought to Pennsylvania in the 1880s. Today, many communities across the U.S. and Canada continue this age-old ritual with their own special groundhogs.

The most famous of these furry forecasters is Punxsutawney Phil from Pennsylvania – he was portrayed in the 1993 film, “Groundhog Day”. Here in New York City, our local weather-groundhog is Charles G. Hogg. A resident of the Staten Island Zoo, he is more popularly known as “Staten Island Chuck”. This year, the two groundhogs had a difference of opinion. Phil predicts six more weeks of winter and Chuck is calling for an early spring.

Long-range forecasts can be a tricky business, so we will have to wait and see what actually happens. Either way, the spring equinox is 46 days away.

Credit: VillageGrocer

NYC Monthly Summary: January 2017

January was another month of wild temperature swings in New York City. We had highs that ranged from a chilly 23°F to a  record breaking 66°F. But with 20 out of 31 days posting above average readings, the warmth won out in the end. The city’s mean temperature for the month was 38°F, which is a whopping 5.4°F above our long-term norm. That makes January 2017 the Big Apple’s 19th consecutive month with an above-average temperature, its longest streak on record.

In terms of precipitation, January was unusually wet. In all, we received 4.83 inches of rain, which is 1.18 inches above normal. The majority of this plentiful total fell during the nor’easter at the end of the month. Snowfall, on the other hand, was about average with 7.9 inches measured in Central Park. All of this precipitation put a dent in the region’s extended drought. The city, according to the latest report from the US Drought Monitor (1/26), improved from moderate drought conditions last month to abnormally dry.

January 2017 was NYC’s 19th consecutive month with an above-average temperature. Credit: The Weather Gamut

A Record Warm January Day in NYC

The calendar says January, but it felt more like April in New York City on Thursday. The temperature soared to 66°F in Central Park, setting a new record high for the date. The previous record of 64°F stood since 1890. The overnight low temperature of 47°F was also record warm.

The city’s normal high this time of year is 38°F, but a “January thaw” is not unusual. Nevertheless, after getting 6.3 inches of snow over the weekend and temperatures only reaching the mid-20s on Monday, these spring-like conditions felt like weather whiplash.

Many New Yorkers enjoyed the unseasonable warmth, while others were sad to see the snow melt away. It is, however, still January. So, regardless of opinions, keep your winter gear handy.

January 12th brought NYC a record high temperature and a record warm low temperature. Credit: The Weather Gamut

NYC Monthly Summary: December 2016

December felt like a weather roller coaster in New York City this year. We had highs that ranged from a cold 27°F to a relatively balmy 60°F. The warmth won out in the end, though. The city’s mean temperature for the month was 38.4°F, which is 0.9°F above our long-term norm. That makes December 2016 the Big Apple’s 18th consecutive month with an above average temperature – its longest streak on record.

In terms of precipitation, December was mostly dry. In all, we received 2.89 inches of rain, which is 1.11 inches below normal. Snowfall was also relatively scarce with Central Park reporting 3.2 inches for the month. The city usually receives 4.8 inches of snow in December. As a result of the this paltry precipitation, NYC remains in a moderate drought according the latest report (12/29) from the US Drought Monitor.

Credit: The Weather Gamut

The Chances for a White Christmas

The Holiday Season is here and many people are dreaming of a White Christmas. The likelihood of seeing those dreams come true, however, are largely dependent on where you live.

According to NOAA, a White Christmas is defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th. In the US, the climatological probability of having snow for Christmas is greatest across the northern tier of the country. Moving south, average temperatures increase and the odds for snow steadily decreases.

Here in New York City, the historical chance of having a White Christmas is about 12%. This low probability is largely due to the city’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and its moderating influence on temperature. This year, despite some chilly conditions and accumulating snow earlier in the month, NYC is expecting above average temperatures on the big day.  So, the city’s already minimal chance for a White Christmas has largely melted away.

Snow or no snow, The Weather Gamut wishes you a very Happy Holiday!

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

Winter Solstice 2016

Today is the December solstice, the first day of winter in the northern hemisphere. The new season officially began at 10:44 UTC, which is 05:44 AM EST.

The astronomical seasons, which are different than meteorological seasons, are produced by the tilt of the Earth’s axis (a 23.5° angle) and the movement of the planet around the sun. During the winter months, the northern half of the Earth is tilted away from the sun. This position means the northern hemisphere receives the sun’s energy at a less direct angle and brings us our coolest temperatures of the year.

Since the summer solstice in June, the arc of the sun’s apparent daily passage across the sky has been dropping toward the southern horizon and daylight hours have been decreasing. Today, it will reach its southern most position at the Tropic of Capricorn   (23.5° south latitude) marking the shortest day of the year. This observable stop is where today’s event takes its name. Solstice is derived from the Latin words “sol” for sun and “sisto” for stop.

Soon, the sun will appear to move northward again and daylight hours will slowly start to increase. Marking this transition from darkness to light, the winter solstice has long been a cause for celebration across many cultures throughout human history.

Earth’s solstices and equinoxes. Image Credit: NASA

Earth’s solstices and equinoxes. Image Credit: NASA

Dressing for Cold Weather

When winter rolls around, I am often reminded of the old Scandinavian saying: “There is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing.”

Since the weather is going to do whatever it is going to do, we all need to be aware of our environment and prepare for what Mother Nature throws our way. In winter, that means cold temperatures.

Extreme cold causes the body to lose heat faster than it can be generated. Prolonged exposure, according to the CDC, can cause serious health problems such as hypothermia and frostbite.

To stay safe this winter, remember to bundle up in layers and wear hats and gloves to minimize the loss of body heat.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

First Snowfall of the Season in NYC

Let it snow! New York City saw its first measurable snowfall of the 2016-2017 winter season on Sunday with 0.4 inches reported in Central Park.

With the snow sticking only to grassy areas and parked cars, it was really just a dusting. But with holiday lights and decorations up all around the city, the softly falling flakes added to the festive atmosphere.

The timing of this first snowfall was about average for the Big Apple. Our earliest first snow event was on October 21,1952 and our latest was January 29,1973. On average, NYC gets 25.3 inches of snow for the entire winter season.

First Freeze of the Season for NYC

After a long hot summer and mostly mild autumn, winter has finally arrived in New York City.

According to the NWS, the temperature in Central Park dropped to 30°F late Friday night. That was the coldest air the city has seen since April and marks the first freeze of the season.

Compared to average, this first nip of frosty air arrived a bit late. The city usually sees its first freeze in mid-November.  The earliest 32°F reading on record came on October 19 twice, first in 1940 and then again in 1974.  Our latest first freeze was on December 22, 1998.

Produced by a deep dip in the jet stream, these current chilly conditions are expected to last through the weekend. Then, after a brief warm-up, another shot of arctic air is forecast to hit the city late next week. Keep those coats and gloves handy!

Average Dates for First Frost

Average Dates for First Frost in New York State.  Credit: Cornell.edu

Weather and Health: Seasonal Affective Disorder

Autumn, with its crisp temperatures, is a favorite season for many. But for others, the decreasing daylight hours can bring on a condition known as Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD).

According to the Mayo Clinic, SAD is a “subtype of depression that comes and goes with the seasons” and is most common in fall and winter. Its exact cause is not fully understood, but researchers say a reduction of sunlight can disrupt the production of serotonin and melatonin – chemicals in the brain that regulate mood and sleep patterns. SAD symptoms include low spirits, lack of energy, difficulty concentrating, and changes in both sleep and eating patterns.

SAD is typically found in places that are far from the equator where daylight is at a minimum in the winter months. A report by the American Academy of Family Physicians says about 6% of the US population suffers from some degree of SAD, with most cases occurring in Alaska.

The most common treatment for SAD is light therapy. This involves sitting in front of a special lamp that gives off light that is similar to natural sunshine. It has been shown to trigger the brain chemicals that regulate mood. The more serious cases of SAD could require advanced talk-therapy or even medication.

While everyone can feel a little “blue” once in awhile, SAD is characterized by a prolonged feeling of depression. It can be a serious condition and should be diagnosed by a medical professional.

SAD. Credit: hercampus

The most common type of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) occurs in fall and winter. Credit: hercampus